KOMA / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST75%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

87%

80%

71%

58%

Consensus

75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 74.2¢Risks 74.15u

HRESNO 25.8¢Risks 25.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +25.85u · HRES −25.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	36.3%	—	14.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	48.3%	—	—	—	—	17.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	63.8%	—	—	—	—	26.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	8.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	44.6%	—	—	—	—	16.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	62.7%	—	15.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	—	—	—	—	30.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	47.4%	—	66.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	85.9%	—	—	24.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	19.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	66.4%	3.5%	30.6%	—	—	39.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	76.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	45.1%	12.2%	81.6%	2.4%	—	36.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	35.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	61.6%	62.9%	24.3%	25.4%	—	29.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	—	15.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	54.6%	60.6%	53.0%	14.2%	—	25.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	59.3%	—	15.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	82.6%	72.6%	43.6%	—	42.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	56.5%	—	82.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	53.3%	81.0%	88.4%	45.0%	—	38.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	53.4%	68.9%	59.3%	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	93.0%	66.2%	56.1%	85.4%	53.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	79.8%	—	—	44.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	90%	77.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	87%	79.4°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	80%	76.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	71%	74.8°F	4.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	58%	73.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	72.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261024-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 17 · 11:32 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 73°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗