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KOMA / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST56%Oct 17 · 10:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
83%
WN2
58%
EPS
53%
HRES
39%
ICON
24%
Consensus
56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 53.2¢Risks 53.20u
VS
ICONNO 46.8¢Risks 46.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +46.80u · ICON −46.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 82.6% · 2026-10-17T07:44:40+00:00AIFS Single: 82.6% · 2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00AIFS Single: 82.6% · 2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00AIFS Single: 82.6% · 2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00AIFS Single: 82.6% · 2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.4% · 2026-10-17T07:44:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.4% · 2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.4% · 2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.4% · 2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.4% · 2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 58.0% · 2026-10-17T07:44:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 58.0% · 2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 58.0% · 2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 58.0% · 2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 58.0% · 2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00IFS HRES: 39.0% · 2026-10-17T07:44:40+00:00IFS HRES: 39.0% · 2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00IFS HRES: 39.0% · 2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00IFS HRES: 39.0% · 2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00IFS HRES: 39.0% · 2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00ICON: 23.8% · 2026-10-17T07:44:40+00:00ICON: 23.8% · 2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00ICON: 23.8% · 2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00ICON: 23.8% · 2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00ICON: 23.8% · 2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:0010-17 07:4410-17 09:1610-17 10:46
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T07:44:40+00:0082.6%53.4%58.0%39.0%23.8%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:0082.6%53.4%58.0%39.0%23.8%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:0082.6%53.4%58.0%39.0%23.8%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:0082.6%53.4%58.0%39.0%23.8%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:0082.6%53.4%58.0%39.0%23.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single83%78.9°F5.8°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 258%74.6°F5.5°F2026-10-16 18:00Pending
IFS Ensemble53%74.1°F7.1°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending
National Blend53%74.0°F6.6°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS HRES39%71.7°F6.5°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
ICON24%66.4°F9.9°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261024-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 74°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗