KOMA / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST56%Oct 17 · 10:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

58%

53%

39%

24%

Consensus

56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 53.2¢Risks 53.20u

ICONNO 46.8¢Risks 46.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +46.80u · ICON −46.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	—	—	—	12.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	9.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	11.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	42.7%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	—	—	—	21.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	48.8%	—	6.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	—	—	—	12.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	56.8%	—	12.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	48.1%	—	—	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	60.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	82.0%	—	—	19.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	15.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	2.4%	24.9%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	43.8%	—	71.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	38.2%	9.0%	76.5%	1.6%	—	30.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	28.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	55.8%	18.9%	19.9%	—	23.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	11.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	46.9%	53.0%	45.4%	10.3%	—	20.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	11.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	77.0%	65.5%	35.9%	—	35.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	76.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	45.0%	74.9%	83.8%	36.9%	—	30.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	44.9%	61.0%	50.9%	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	32.2%	89.5%	57.8%	47.4%	79.8%	44.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	72.9%	—	—	35.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	83%	78.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	58%	74.6°F	5.5°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	53%	74.1°F	7.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	74.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	39%	71.7°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	24%	66.4°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261024-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 74°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗