KOMA / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

76%

61%

51%

38%

19%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 47.3¢Risks 47.30u

AIFSNO 52.7¢Risks 52.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +52.70u · AIFS −52.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T11:02:52+00:00	23.8%	61.0%	74.1%	58.6%	39.3%
2026-10-18T11:48:16+00:00	23.8%	61.0%	74.1%	58.6%	39.3%
2026-10-18T12:33:47+00:00	23.8%	61.0%	74.1%	58.6%	39.3%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	23.8%	61.0%	74.1%	58.6%	39.3%
2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00	2.7%	60.9%	74.1%	58.6%	39.0%
2026-10-18T14:55:57+00:00	2.7%	60.9%	74.1%	58.6%	39.0%
2026-10-18T15:41:32+00:00	2.7%	61.2%	74.1%	58.6%	39.0%
2026-10-18T16:26:59+00:00	2.7%	61.2%	74.1%	58.6%	39.0%
2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00	2.7%	61.2%	75.3%	58.6%	39.0%
2026-10-18T17:57:30+00:00	2.7%	61.2%	75.3%	58.6%	39.0%
2026-10-18T18:42:48+00:00	2.7%	61.2%	75.3%	58.6%	39.0%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	33.8%	61.2%	75.3%	38.4%	75.8%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00	33.8%	61.2%	75.3%	38.4%	75.8%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	33.8%	61.2%	75.3%	38.4%	75.8%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	33.8%	61.2%	75.3%	38.4%	75.8%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	33.8%	61.2%	75.3%	38.4%	75.8%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	33.8%	61.2%	50.8%	38.4%	75.8%
2026-10-18T23:58:54+00:00	33.8%	61.2%	50.8%	38.4%	75.8%
2026-10-19T00:44:08+00:00	33.8%	61.2%	50.8%	38.4%	75.8%
2026-10-19T01:29:36+00:00	18.8%	61.2%	50.8%	38.4%	75.8%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	18.8%	61.2%	50.8%	38.4%	75.8%
2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00	18.8%	61.2%	50.8%	38.4%	75.8%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	18.8%	61.2%	50.8%	38.4%	75.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	76%	76.5°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	61%	71.8°F	8.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	70.0°F	9.9°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	51%	69.6°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	67.6°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	19%	64.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261025-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 70°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗