KOMA / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

76%

61%

51%

38%

19%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 47.3¢Risks 47.30u

AIFSNO 52.7¢Risks 52.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +52.70u · AIFS −52.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	—	—	—	14.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	66.3%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	36.1%	—	—	—	—	12.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	—	—	—	—	20.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	43.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	34.6%	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	70.7%	—	16.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	27.8%	—	—	21.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	8.0%	10.5%	1.4%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	66.4%	3.3%	2.2%	—	34.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	12.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	32.3%	67.0%	22.6%	48.5%	—	31.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	11.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	66.3%	78.4%	12.9%	15.1%	—	28.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	37.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	39.0%	15.9%	17.9%	94.7%	10.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	2.0%	—	—	11.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	76%	76.5°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	61%	71.8°F	8.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	70.0°F	9.9°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	51%	69.6°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	67.6°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	19%	64.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261025-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 70°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗