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KOMA / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Oct 18 · 10:17 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
65%
EPS
55%
HRES
46%
ICON
32%
AIFS
14%
Consensus
42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 39.6¢Risks 39.65u
VS
AIFSNO 60.3¢Risks 60.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +60.35u · AIFS −60.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 14.4% · 2026-10-18T08:01:28+00:00AIFS Single: 14.4% · 2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00AIFS Single: 14.4% · 2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00AIFS Single: 14.4% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.1% · 2026-10-18T08:01:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.1% · 2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.1% · 2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.1% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.9% · 2026-10-18T08:01:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.9% · 2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.9% · 2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.9% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00IFS HRES: 46.3% · 2026-10-18T08:01:28+00:00IFS HRES: 46.3% · 2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00IFS HRES: 46.3% · 2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00IFS HRES: 46.3% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00ICON: 31.8% · 2026-10-18T08:01:28+00:00ICON: 31.8% · 2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00ICON: 31.8% · 2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00ICON: 31.8% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:0010-18 08:0110-18 09:3210-18 10:17
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T08:01:28+00:0014.4%55.1%64.9%46.3%31.8%
2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:0014.4%55.1%64.9%46.3%31.8%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:0014.4%55.1%64.9%46.3%31.8%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:0014.4%55.1%64.9%46.3%31.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 265%73.6°F5.5°F2026-10-17 18:00Pending
IFS Ensemble55%72.5°F7.8°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
National Blend53%72.0°F7.7°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS HRES46%70.9°F6.5°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
ICON32%66.8°F9.9°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
AIFS Single14%65.4°F5.8°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261025-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 72°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗