KOMA / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Oct 18 · 10:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

65%

55%

46%

32%

14%

Consensus

42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 39.6¢Risks 39.65u

AIFSNO 60.3¢Risks 60.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +60.35u · AIFS −60.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	11.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	—	—	—	—	9.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	55.6%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	—	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	32.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	24.2%	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	47.5%	—	—	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	9.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	18.0%	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	16.3%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	5.6%	0.6%	—	—	21.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	6.7%	52.8%	1.4%	0.9%	—	23.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	6.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	52.9%	13.2%	34.3%	—	19.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	6.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	51.5%	65.6%	6.5%	7.8%	—	17.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	24.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	24.8%	8.1%	9.3%	88.9%	5.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	0.7%	—	—	5.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	65%	73.6°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	55%	72.5°F	7.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	72.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	70.9°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	32%	66.8°F	9.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	14%	65.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261025-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 72°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗