KOMA / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

44%

20%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 22.2¢Risks 22.20u

WN2NO 77.8¢Risks 77.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +77.80u · WN2 −77.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T07:33:22+00:00	20.2%	28.1%	2.3%	3.0%	16.6%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	20.2%	28.1%	2.3%	3.0%	16.6%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	20.2%	28.1%	2.3%	3.0%	16.6%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	20.2%	28.1%	2.3%	3.0%	16.6%
2026-10-19T10:35:19+00:00	20.2%	28.1%	2.3%	3.0%	16.6%
2026-10-19T11:21:05+00:00	20.2%	24.8%	2.0%	3.0%	16.6%
2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:00	20.2%	24.8%	2.0%	3.0%	16.6%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	20.2%	24.8%	2.0%	3.0%	16.6%
2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00	3.9%	24.8%	2.0%	3.0%	16.6%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	3.9%	24.8%	2.0%	3.0%	16.7%
2026-10-19T15:13:43+00:00	3.9%	25.5%	2.0%	3.0%	16.7%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	3.9%	25.5%	2.0%	3.0%	16.7%
2026-10-19T16:44:21+00:00	3.9%	25.5%	2.0%	3.0%	16.7%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	3.9%	25.5%	0.0%	3.0%	16.7%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	3.9%	25.5%	0.0%	3.0%	16.7%
2026-10-19T19:00:07+00:00	3.9%	25.5%	0.0%	3.0%	16.7%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	15.6%	25.5%	0.0%	2.0%	60.2%
2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00	15.6%	25.5%	0.0%	2.0%	60.2%
2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00	15.6%	25.5%	0.0%	2.0%	60.2%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00	15.6%	25.5%	0.0%	2.0%	60.2%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	15.6%	25.5%	0.0%	2.0%	60.2%
2026-10-19T23:31:30+00:00	15.6%	25.5%	0.0%	2.0%	60.2%
2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00	15.6%	25.5%	0.0%	2.0%	60.2%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00	15.6%	25.5%	0.0%	2.0%	60.2%
2026-10-20T04:04:53+00:00	1.0%	25.5%	0.0%	2.0%	60.2%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00	1.0%	25.5%	0.0%	2.0%	60.2%
2026-10-20T10:53:51+00:00	3.9%	20.3%	0.0%	0.6%	44.4%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00	3.9%	20.3%	0.0%	0.6%	44.4%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	3.9%	20.3%	0.0%	0.6%	44.4%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00	3.9%	20.3%	0.0%	0.6%	44.4%
2026-10-20T13:55:21+00:00	3.9%	20.3%	0.0%	0.6%	44.4%
2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00	3.9%	20.3%	0.0%	0.6%	44.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	44%	74.5°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	20%	65.3°F	12.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	12%	64.0°F	10.0°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	66.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	4%	66.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	<1%	59.1°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	59.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261026-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Omaha runs hot-for-here: 76°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗