KOMA / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 15:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

44%

20%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 22.2¢Risks 22.20u

WN2NO 77.8¢Risks 77.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +77.80u · WN2 −77.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	2.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	2.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	2.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	—	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	53.0%	—	0.6%	—	—	2.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	13.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	5.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	0.1%	—	—	9.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	0.8%	40.0%	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	36.2%	0.2%	0.0%	—	2.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	19.9%	0.0%	3.9%	35.7%	0.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	44%	74.5°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	20%	65.4°F	12.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	13%	64.0°F	10.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	4%	66.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	64.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	<1%	59.1°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	59.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261026-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Omaha runs hot-for-here: 76°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗