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KORD / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 61°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 09 · 10:52 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
85%
ICON
83%
HRES
66%
WN2
57%
AIFS
28%
Consensus
62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 56.8¢Risks 56.80u
VS
AIFSNO 43.2¢Risks 43.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +43.20u · AIFS −43.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 28.3% · 2026-10-09T07:51:19+00:00AIFS Single: 28.3% · 2026-10-09T08:37:13+00:00AIFS Single: 28.3% · 2026-10-09T09:22:19+00:00AIFS Single: 28.3% · 2026-10-09T10:07:25+00:00AIFS Single: 28.3% · 2026-10-09T10:52:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.3% · 2026-10-09T07:51:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.3% · 2026-10-09T08:37:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.3% · 2026-10-09T09:22:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.3% · 2026-10-09T10:07:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.3% · 2026-10-09T10:52:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.7% · 2026-10-09T07:51:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.7% · 2026-10-09T08:37:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.7% · 2026-10-09T09:22:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.7% · 2026-10-09T10:07:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.7% · 2026-10-09T10:52:31+00:00IFS HRES: 65.9% · 2026-10-09T07:51:19+00:00IFS HRES: 65.9% · 2026-10-09T08:37:13+00:00IFS HRES: 65.9% · 2026-10-09T09:22:19+00:00IFS HRES: 65.9% · 2026-10-09T10:07:25+00:00IFS HRES: 65.9% · 2026-10-09T10:52:31+00:00ICON: 83.4% · 2026-10-09T07:51:19+00:00ICON: 83.4% · 2026-10-09T08:37:13+00:00ICON: 83.4% · 2026-10-09T09:22:19+00:00ICON: 83.4% · 2026-10-09T10:07:25+00:00ICON: 83.4% · 2026-10-09T10:52:31+00:0010-09 07:5110-09 09:2210-09 10:52
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-09T10:52:31+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-09T07:51:19+00:0028.3%85.3%56.7%65.9%83.4%
2026-10-09T08:37:13+00:0028.3%85.3%56.7%65.9%83.4%
2026-10-09T09:22:19+00:0028.3%85.3%56.7%65.9%83.4%
2026-10-09T10:07:25+00:0028.3%85.3%56.7%65.9%83.4%
2026-10-09T10:52:31+00:0028.3%85.3%56.7%65.9%83.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble85%69.0°F8.1°F2026-10-08 00:000.7276
ICON83%70.0°F9.8°F2026-10-09 00:000.6956
IFS HRES66%63.1°F6.3°F2026-10-09 00:000.4343
WeatherNext 257%61.4°F5.3°F2026-10-08 18:000.3215
National Blend53%61.0°F7.6°F2026-10-09 00:000.2767
AIFS Single28%57.3°F5.6°F2026-10-09 00:000.0801

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 61°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261016-TMAX-GE61
Opened Oct 09 · 07:51 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 61°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗