KORD / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 61°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 09 · 10:52 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

83%

66%

57%

28%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 56.8¢Risks 56.80u

AIFSNO 43.2¢Risks 43.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +43.20u · AIFS −43.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	67.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	93.9%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	66.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	33.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	28.6%	—	—	—	—	56.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	44.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	88.3%	—	—	41.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	52.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	86.1%	—	100.0%	—	—	62.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	99.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	59.7%	—	91.2%	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	97.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	10.2%	80.6%	97.6%	—	—	60.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	86.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	38.2%	91.5%	94.8%	29.8%	—	57.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	79.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	99.7%	84.4%	85.2%	—	58.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	75.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	98.5%	89.3%	70.4%	—	47.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	74.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	56.4%	43.6%	46.0%	—	49.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	11.4%	66.6%	35.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	63.9%	25.1%	36.1%	—	53.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	23.3%	61.0%	36.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	52.6%	41.3%	67.8%	—	48.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	16.1%	56.3%	24.9%	—	—	40.2%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	15.4%	58.2%	25.1%	19.0%	—	39.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	12.2%	69.1%	27.6%	—	—	26.9%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	12.1%	61.5%	37.6%	21.0%	—	34.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	8.4%	61.8%	69.2%	—	—	54.0%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	9.4%	64.1%	36.9%	33.0%	—	42.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	65.5%	33.5%	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	11.4%	47.8%	25.5%	19.0%	—	70.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	52.2%	38.9%	20.6%	—	91.3%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	83.2%	36.3%	54.6%	97.7%	90.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	76.6%	37.0%	38.1%	—	64.1%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	94.1%	64.6%	52.5%	97.0%	90.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	96.5%	51.3%	48.7%	—	93.6%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	93.9%	77.0%	48.7%	98.6%	92.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	92.4%	92.4%	27.6%	—	94.2%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	93.2%	94.9%	21.2%	96.5%	82.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	12.8%	5.6%	6.0%	—	3.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	2.6%	1.2%	0.1%	0.0%	2.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.7%	2.8%	0.9%	—	1.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	85%	69.0°F	8.1°F	2026-10-08 00:00	0.7276
ICON	83%	70.0°F	9.8°F	2026-10-09 00:00	0.6956
IFS HRES	66%	63.1°F	6.3°F	2026-10-09 00:00	0.4343
WeatherNext 2	57%	61.4°F	5.3°F	2026-10-08 18:00	0.3215
National Blend	53%	61.0°F	7.6°F	2026-10-09 00:00	0.2767
AIFS Single	28%	57.3°F	5.6°F	2026-10-09 00:00	0.0801

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 61°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261016-TMAX-GE61
Opened Oct 09 · 07:51 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 61°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗