KORD / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

71%

48%

41%

34%

Consensus

51%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 55.2¢Risks 55.25u

WN2NO 44.8¢Risks 44.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +44.75u · WN2 −44.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T03:15:37+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-10T04:17:15+00:00	52.9%	80.3%	44.3%	72.6%	87.3%
2026-10-10T05:03:06+00:00	52.9%	80.3%	44.3%	72.6%	87.3%
2026-10-10T05:48:16+00:00	52.9%	80.3%	51.6%	72.6%	87.3%
2026-10-10T06:33:22+00:00	52.9%	80.3%	51.6%	72.6%	87.3%
2026-10-10T07:18:26+00:00	52.9%	80.3%	51.6%	72.6%	87.3%
2026-10-10T08:03:34+00:00	45.5%	80.3%	51.6%	72.6%	99.4%
2026-10-10T08:48:40+00:00	45.5%	80.3%	51.6%	72.6%	99.4%
2026-10-10T09:33:45+00:00	45.5%	80.3%	51.6%	72.6%	99.4%
2026-10-10T10:18:59+00:00	45.5%	80.3%	51.6%	72.6%	99.4%
2026-10-10T11:04:06+00:00	45.5%	80.3%	51.6%	72.6%	99.4%
2026-10-10T11:49:15+00:00	45.5%	73.5%	51.6%	72.6%	99.4%
2026-10-10T12:34:20+00:00	45.5%	73.5%	51.6%	72.6%	99.4%
2026-10-10T13:19:26+00:00	45.5%	73.5%	51.6%	72.6%	99.4%
2026-10-10T14:04:56+00:00	44.7%	73.3%	51.6%	72.6%	99.4%
2026-10-10T14:53:54+00:00	44.7%	73.3%	51.6%	72.6%	99.4%
2026-10-10T15:39:28+00:00	44.7%	73.7%	51.6%	72.6%	99.4%
2026-10-10T16:24:39+00:00	44.7%	73.7%	51.6%	72.6%	99.4%
2026-10-10T17:09:46+00:00	44.7%	73.7%	32.1%	72.6%	99.4%
2026-10-10T17:54:57+00:00	44.7%	73.7%	32.1%	72.6%	99.4%
2026-10-10T18:40:21+00:00	44.7%	73.7%	32.1%	72.6%	99.4%
2026-10-10T19:25:34+00:00	44.7%	73.7%	32.1%	72.6%	99.4%
2026-10-10T20:10:43+00:00	39.5%	73.7%	32.1%	72.6%	97.7%
2026-10-10T20:56:00+00:00	39.5%	73.7%	32.1%	72.6%	97.7%
2026-10-10T21:41:28+00:00	39.5%	73.7%	32.1%	72.6%	97.7%
2026-10-10T22:27:30+00:00	39.5%	73.7%	32.1%	48.2%	97.7%
2026-10-10T23:13:31+00:00	39.5%	73.7%	26.8%	48.2%	97.7%
2026-10-10T23:58:38+00:00	39.5%	73.7%	26.8%	48.2%	97.7%
2026-10-11T00:43:45+00:00	39.5%	73.7%	26.8%	48.2%	97.7%
2026-10-11T01:29:00+00:00	24.8%	73.7%	26.8%	48.2%	97.7%
2026-10-11T02:14:12+00:00	24.8%	73.7%	26.8%	48.2%	97.7%
2026-10-11T02:59:19+00:00	24.8%	73.7%	26.8%	48.2%	97.7%
2026-10-11T03:44:54+00:00	24.8%	73.7%	26.8%	48.2%	97.7%
2026-10-11T15:11:38+00:00	29.1%	76.7%	30.2%	44.5%	97.6%
2026-10-11T15:57:19+00:00	29.1%	76.7%	30.2%	44.5%	97.6%
2026-10-11T16:42:26+00:00	29.1%	76.7%	30.2%	44.5%	97.6%
2026-10-11T17:28:01+00:00	29.1%	76.7%	28.5%	44.5%	97.6%
2026-10-11T18:13:11+00:00	29.1%	76.7%	28.5%	44.5%	97.6%
2026-10-11T18:58:19+00:00	29.1%	76.7%	28.5%	44.5%	97.6%
2026-10-11T19:43:31+00:00	38.0%	76.7%	28.5%	41.1%	71.3%
2026-10-11T20:28:40+00:00	38.0%	76.7%	28.5%	41.1%	71.3%
2026-10-11T21:13:52+00:00	38.0%	76.7%	28.5%	41.1%	71.3%
2026-10-11T21:58:59+00:00	38.0%	76.7%	28.5%	41.1%	71.3%
2026-10-11T22:44:13+00:00	38.0%	76.7%	28.5%	41.1%	71.3%
2026-10-11T23:29:32+00:00	38.0%	76.7%	33.8%	41.1%	71.3%
2026-10-12T00:14:44+00:00	38.0%	76.7%	33.8%	41.1%	71.3%
2026-10-12T01:00:12+00:00	38.0%	76.7%	33.8%	41.1%	71.3%
2026-10-12T01:45:20+00:00	47.6%	76.7%	33.8%	41.1%	71.3%
2026-10-12T02:30:29+00:00	47.6%	76.7%	33.8%	41.1%	71.3%
2026-10-12T03:15:37+00:00	47.6%	76.7%	33.8%	41.1%	71.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	77%	66.9°F	7.4°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.5883
ICON	71%	64.8°F	5.9°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.5084
NWS forecast	54%	62.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-11 14:00	0.2905
AIFS Single	48%	61.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-11 18:00	0.2266
National Blend	46%	61.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.2070
IFS HRES	41%	60.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.1689
WeatherNext 2	34%	59.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.1142

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261016-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 10 · 04:17 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 62°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗