KORD / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

71%

48%

41%

34%

Consensus

51%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 55.2¢Risks 55.25u

WN2NO 44.8¢Risks 44.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +44.75u · WN2 −44.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	62.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	61.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	—	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	85.2%	—	—	36.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	60.8%	—	—	—	—	46.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	—	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	82.4%	—	100.0%	—	—	56.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	99.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	88.3%	—	—	76.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	20.3%	—	96.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	75.6%	96.5%	—	—	54.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	82.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	31.7%	88.5%	92.6%	24.1%	—	50.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	73.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	19.4%	99.5%	79.5%	80.6%	—	51.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	68.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	14.2%	97.6%	85.4%	63.5%	—	40.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	68.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	9.7%	48.4%	35.9%	38.2%	—	41.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	58.9%	28.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	55.8%	18.9%	28.6%	—	45.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	17.3%	52.6%	28.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	16.7%	43.9%	33.0%	59.6%	—	39.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	47.3%	18.4%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	10.6%	49.1%	18.4%	13.4%	—	30.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	60.3%	20.3%	—	—	19.6%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	51.9%	28.7%	14.7%	—	26.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	52.0%	59.9%	—	—	44.0%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	54.1%	27.6%	24.3%	—	33.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	7.2%	55.3%	24.5%	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	7.0%	37.1%	17.6%	12.5%	—	60.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	41.0%	28.6%	13.5%	—	85.9%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	74.9%	26.0%	43.0%	95.5%	84.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	66.4%	26.3%	27.3%	—	52.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	89.4%	52.5%	40.1%	94.1%	83.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	93.2%	38.5%	36.1%	—	88.5%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	88.7%	65.7%	35.6%	96.8%	86.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	86.1%	86.1%	17.3%	—	88.9%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	87.0%	89.8%	12.2%	92.7%	72.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	6.5%	2.4%	2.7%	—	1.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.0%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%	1.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.4%	1.0%	0.3%	—	0.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	77%	66.9°F	7.4°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.5883
ICON	71%	64.8°F	5.9°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.5084
NWS forecast	54%	62.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-11 14:00	0.2905
AIFS Single	48%	61.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-11 18:00	0.2266
National Blend	46%	61.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.2070
IFS HRES	41%	60.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.1689
WeatherNext 2	34%	59.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.1142

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261016-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 10 · 04:17 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 62°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗