KORD / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 63°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 10 · 03:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

76%

67%

46%

36%

Consensus

60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 60.7¢Risks 60.75u

WN2NO 39.3¢Risks 39.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +39.25u · WN2 −39.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-10T03:31:23+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-09T11:37:42+00:00	17.5%	78.9%	41.8%	53.8%	77.8%
2026-10-09T12:23:18+00:00	17.5%	75.9%	41.8%	53.8%	77.8%
2026-10-09T13:08:27+00:00	17.5%	75.9%	41.8%	53.8%	77.8%
2026-10-09T13:53:33+00:00	14.1%	75.9%	41.8%	53.8%	77.8%
2026-10-09T14:42:08+00:00	14.1%	75.9%	41.8%	53.8%	77.7%
2026-10-09T15:27:33+00:00	14.1%	76.3%	41.8%	53.8%	77.7%
2026-10-09T16:13:17+00:00	14.1%	76.3%	41.8%	53.8%	77.7%
2026-10-09T16:58:28+00:00	14.1%	76.3%	41.8%	53.8%	77.7%
2026-10-09T17:43:34+00:00	14.1%	76.3%	36.5%	53.8%	77.7%
2026-10-09T18:28:40+00:00	14.1%	76.3%	36.5%	53.8%	77.7%
2026-10-09T19:13:45+00:00	14.1%	76.3%	36.5%	53.8%	77.7%
2026-10-09T19:58:54+00:00	52.1%	76.3%	36.5%	67.0%	85.0%
2026-10-09T20:44:03+00:00	52.1%	76.3%	36.5%	67.0%	85.0%
2026-10-09T21:29:19+00:00	52.1%	76.3%	36.5%	67.0%	85.0%
2026-10-09T22:14:37+00:00	52.1%	76.3%	36.5%	67.0%	85.0%
2026-10-09T22:59:43+00:00	52.1%	76.3%	36.5%	67.0%	85.0%
2026-10-09T23:44:50+00:00	52.1%	76.3%	36.5%	67.1%	85.0%
2026-10-10T00:30:02+00:00	52.1%	76.3%	36.5%	67.1%	85.0%
2026-10-10T01:15:16+00:00	52.1%	76.3%	36.5%	67.1%	85.0%
2026-10-10T02:00:44+00:00	45.7%	76.3%	36.5%	67.1%	85.0%
2026-10-10T02:46:09+00:00	45.7%	76.3%	36.5%	67.1%	85.0%
2026-10-10T03:31:23+00:00	45.7%	76.3%	36.5%	67.1%	85.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	85%	72.7°F	9.8°F	2026-10-09 12:00	0.7225
IFS Ensemble	76%	67.8°F	7.4°F	2026-10-09 00:00	0.5822
IFS HRES	67%	65.3°F	6.3°F	2026-10-09 12:00	0.4502
National Blend	53%	63.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-09 06:00	0.2809
AIFS Single	46%	61.9°F	5.6°F	2026-10-09 18:00	0.2088
WeatherNext 2	36%	60.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-09 06:00	0.1332

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 63°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261016-TMAX-GE63
Opened Oct 09 · 11:37 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 63°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗