KORD / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 63°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 10 · 03:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

76%

67%

46%

36%

Consensus

60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 60.7¢Risks 60.75u

WN2NO 39.3¢Risks 39.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +39.25u · WN2 −39.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	57.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	—	—	—	45.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	81.5%	—	—	30.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	40.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	39.6%	—	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	100.0%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	99.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	84.8%	—	—	71.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	94.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	5.4%	70.0%	95.0%	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	77.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	84.7%	89.8%	18.9%	—	43.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	19.9%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	14.8%	99.1%	74.0%	75.1%	—	44.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	61.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	96.2%	80.5%	56.1%	—	33.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	60.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	6.7%	40.5%	28.8%	30.9%	—	33.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	50.8%	21.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	47.5%	13.8%	21.9%	—	36.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	44.0%	22.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	35.4%	25.5%	50.9%	—	31.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	38.5%	13.0%	—	—	24.2%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	7.0%	40.0%	12.9%	9.0%	—	23.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	50.9%	14.3%	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	42.3%	21.0%	9.8%	—	19.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	42.0%	50.0%	—	—	34.4%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	43.9%	19.7%	17.0%	—	24.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	44.7%	16.9%	—	—	43.7%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	27.3%	11.4%	7.7%	—	50.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	30.5%	19.8%	8.3%	—	78.6%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	64.8%	17.5%	32.0%	92.0%	76.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	54.8%	17.5%	18.3%	—	40.5%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	82.6%	40.1%	28.7%	89.4%	74.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	87.8%	26.9%	24.8%	—	80.9%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	80.9%	52.7%	24.0%	93.5%	78.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	76.8%	76.8%	9.8%	—	80.9%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	77.8%	81.8%	6.3%	86.2%	58.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.9%	0.9%	1.0%	—	0.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	0.3%	0.1%	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	85%	72.7°F	9.8°F	2026-10-09 12:00	0.7225
IFS Ensemble	76%	67.8°F	7.4°F	2026-10-09 00:00	0.5822
IFS HRES	67%	65.3°F	6.3°F	2026-10-09 12:00	0.4502
National Blend	53%	63.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-09 06:00	0.2809
AIFS Single	46%	61.9°F	5.6°F	2026-10-09 18:00	0.2088
WeatherNext 2	36%	60.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-09 06:00	0.1332

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 63°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261016-TMAX-GE63
Opened Oct 09 · 11:37 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 63°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗