KORD / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST28%Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

55%

37%

36%

28%

19%

Consensus

28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 36.9¢Risks 36.85u

HRESNO 63.1¢Risks 63.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +63.15u · HRES −63.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T15:34:09+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T15:41:27+00:00	53.2%	51.2%	43.2%	34.5%	61.4%
2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00	53.2%	51.2%	43.2%	34.7%	61.4%
2026-10-13T17:12:10+00:00	53.2%	51.2%	48.1%	34.7%	61.4%
2026-10-13T17:57:17+00:00	53.2%	51.2%	48.1%	34.7%	61.4%
2026-10-13T18:42:23+00:00	53.2%	51.2%	48.1%	34.7%	61.4%
2026-10-13T19:27:28+00:00	53.2%	51.2%	48.1%	34.7%	61.4%
2026-10-13T20:12:35+00:00	54.0%	51.2%	48.1%	34.7%	63.9%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	54.0%	51.2%	48.1%	34.7%	63.9%
2026-10-13T21:43:16+00:00	54.0%	51.2%	48.1%	34.7%	63.9%
2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:00	54.0%	51.2%	48.1%	34.7%	63.9%
2026-10-13T23:13:35+00:00	54.0%	51.2%	45.2%	29.3%	63.9%
2026-10-13T23:58:45+00:00	54.0%	51.2%	45.2%	29.0%	63.9%
2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:00	54.0%	51.2%	45.2%	29.0%	63.9%
2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00	44.4%	51.2%	45.2%	29.0%	63.9%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	44.4%	51.2%	45.2%	29.0%	63.9%
2026-10-14T02:59:46+00:00	44.4%	51.2%	45.2%	29.0%	63.9%
2026-10-14T03:45:29+00:00	44.4%	51.2%	45.2%	29.0%	63.9%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	44.4%	51.2%	45.2%	29.0%	63.9%
2026-10-14T05:15:53+00:00	44.4%	51.2%	45.2%	29.0%	63.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	44.4%	51.2%	45.2%	29.0%	63.9%
2026-10-14T06:46:15+00:00	44.4%	51.2%	45.2%	29.0%	63.9%
2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00	50.9%	51.2%	45.2%	29.0%	40.2%
2026-10-14T08:16:35+00:00	50.9%	51.2%	45.2%	29.0%	40.2%
2026-10-14T09:01:46+00:00	50.9%	51.2%	45.2%	29.0%	40.2%
2026-10-14T09:46:53+00:00	50.9%	51.2%	45.2%	29.0%	40.2%
2026-10-14T10:32:57+00:00	50.9%	51.2%	45.2%	18.4%	40.2%
2026-10-14T11:20:50+00:00	50.9%	35.1%	35.3%	18.4%	40.2%
2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00	50.9%	35.1%	35.3%	18.4%	40.2%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	50.9%	35.1%	35.3%	18.4%	40.2%
2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00	50.9%	35.1%	35.3%	18.4%	40.2%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	50.9%	35.1%	35.3%	18.4%	41.0%
2026-10-14T15:12:16+00:00	50.9%	36.2%	35.3%	18.4%	41.0%
2026-10-14T15:57:56+00:00	50.9%	36.2%	35.3%	18.4%	41.0%
2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00	50.9%	36.2%	35.3%	18.4%	41.0%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00	50.9%	36.2%	33.4%	18.4%	41.0%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	50.9%	36.2%	33.4%	18.4%	41.0%
2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00	50.9%	36.2%	33.4%	18.4%	41.0%
2026-10-14T19:43:34+00:00	50.9%	36.2%	33.4%	18.9%	37.0%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	50.9%	36.2%	33.4%	18.9%	37.0%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	50.9%	36.2%	33.4%	18.9%	37.0%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	50.9%	36.2%	33.4%	18.9%	37.0%
2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00	50.9%	36.2%	33.4%	18.9%	37.0%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	50.9%	35.8%	35.3%	18.9%	37.0%
2026-10-15T00:14:41+00:00	50.9%	35.8%	35.3%	18.9%	37.0%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00	50.9%	35.8%	35.3%	18.9%	37.0%
2026-10-15T01:46:18+00:00	53.5%	35.8%	35.3%	18.9%	37.0%
2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00	53.5%	35.8%	35.3%	18.9%	37.0%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00	53.5%	35.8%	35.3%	18.9%	37.0%
2026-10-15T04:02:09+00:00	53.5%	35.8%	35.3%	18.9%	37.0%
2026-10-15T04:47:54+00:00	53.5%	35.8%	35.3%	18.9%	37.0%
2026-10-15T05:33:17+00:00	53.5%	35.8%	39.4%	18.9%	37.0%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00	53.5%	35.8%	39.4%	18.9%	37.0%
2026-10-15T07:03:37+00:00	53.5%	35.8%	39.4%	18.9%	37.0%
2026-10-15T07:49:41+00:00	50.0%	35.8%	39.4%	19.1%	28.1%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	50.0%	35.8%	39.4%	19.1%	28.1%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	50.0%	35.8%	39.4%	19.1%	28.1%
2026-10-15T10:07:32+00:00	50.0%	35.8%	39.4%	19.1%	28.1%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00	50.0%	35.8%	39.4%	19.1%	28.1%
2026-10-15T11:39:18+00:00	50.0%	35.8%	37.2%	19.1%	28.1%
2026-10-15T12:24:51+00:00	50.0%	39.8%	37.2%	19.1%	28.1%
2026-10-15T13:10:19+00:00	50.0%	39.8%	37.2%	19.1%	28.1%
2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00	54.6%	39.8%	37.2%	19.1%	28.1%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	54.6%	39.9%	37.2%	19.1%	28.1%
2026-10-15T15:34:09+00:00	54.6%	36.0%	37.2%	19.1%	28.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	66.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	55%	66.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	37%	64.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	36%	64.5°F	2.8°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	28%	63.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	19%	61.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	13%	63.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261018-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 13 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 66°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗