KORD / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST28%Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

55%

37%

36%

28%

19%

Consensus

28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 36.9¢Risks 36.85u

HRESNO 63.1¢Risks 63.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +63.15u · HRES −63.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	64.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	—	—	—	12.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	13.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	0.1%	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	0.2%	—	—	20.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	0.2%	—	—	18.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	0.2%	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	1.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	19.4%	7.4%	14.5%	—	20.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	24.3%	25.4%	17.9%	35.0%	—	18.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	25.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	39.4%	26.4%	25.1%	50.0%	—	22.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	21.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	42.9%	24.8%	38.2%	—	19.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	1.4%	38.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	45.8%	41.7%	22.5%	—	15.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	17.8%	25.3%	44.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	26.9%	39.6%	26.2%	—	8.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	22.2%	25.7%	39.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	22.3%	33.0%	20.9%	—	8.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	23.1%	22.4%	23.8%	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	23.2%	20.3%	21.0%	—	8.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	22.6%	23.4%	24.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	17.0%	18.3%	20.4%	18.3%	—	9.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	15.0%	10.6%	17.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	11.4%	14.3%	22.1%	—	9.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	14.8%	8.3%	13.5%	0.0%	—	8.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	15.3%	5.7%	17.5%	13.4%	—	8.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	4.8%	16.7%	14.5%	—	6.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	12.4%	3.3%	21.7%	11.2%	0.4%	4.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	2.6%	20.9%	10.9%	—	3.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	1.6%	20.0%	7.0%	0.1%	2.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	4.0%	18.2%	5.8%	—	2.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	7.8%	6.8%	18.2%	5.9%	0.4%	2.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	6.0%	11.2%	2.7%	—	0.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.7%	4.8%	13.4%	2.2%	0.2%	1.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	17.0%	19.2%	7.3%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	66.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	55%	66.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	37%	64.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	36%	64.5°F	2.8°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	28%	63.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	19%	61.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	13%	63.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261018-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 13 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 66°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗