KORD / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST63%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

81%

56%

35%

31%

Consensus

63%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 59.0¢Risks 58.95u

ICONNO 41.0¢Risks 41.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +41.05u · ICON −41.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:13:56+00:00	81.2%	55.4%	79.9%	33.9%	23.1%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	81.2%	55.4%	89.0%	33.9%	23.1%
2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00	81.2%	55.4%	89.0%	33.9%	23.1%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	81.2%	55.4%	89.0%	33.9%	23.1%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00	81.2%	55.4%	89.0%	33.9%	23.1%
2026-10-18T08:01:16+00:00	83.9%	55.4%	89.0%	40.4%	34.5%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00	83.9%	55.4%	89.0%	40.4%	34.5%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	83.9%	55.4%	89.0%	40.4%	34.5%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	83.9%	55.4%	89.0%	40.4%	34.5%
2026-10-18T11:02:45+00:00	83.9%	55.4%	89.0%	40.4%	34.5%
2026-10-18T11:48:13+00:00	83.9%	58.8%	87.2%	40.4%	34.5%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	83.9%	58.8%	87.2%	40.4%	34.5%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	83.9%	58.8%	87.2%	40.4%	34.5%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	74.5%	58.7%	87.2%	40.4%	34.7%
2026-10-18T14:55:46+00:00	74.5%	58.7%	87.2%	40.4%	34.7%
2026-10-18T15:41:30+00:00	74.5%	56.1%	87.2%	40.4%	34.7%
2026-10-18T16:26:57+00:00	74.5%	56.1%	87.2%	40.4%	34.7%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00	74.5%	56.1%	79.5%	40.4%	34.7%
2026-10-18T17:57:24+00:00	74.5%	56.1%	79.5%	40.4%	34.7%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	74.5%	56.1%	79.5%	40.4%	34.7%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	74.5%	56.1%	79.5%	40.4%	34.7%
2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00	79.2%	56.1%	79.5%	35.3%	30.6%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	79.2%	56.1%	79.5%	35.3%	30.6%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	79.2%	56.1%	79.5%	35.3%	30.6%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	79.2%	56.1%	79.5%	35.3%	30.6%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	79.2%	56.1%	81.4%	35.3%	30.6%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00	79.2%	56.1%	81.4%	35.3%	30.6%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00	79.2%	56.1%	81.4%	35.3%	30.6%
2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00	87.3%	56.1%	81.4%	35.3%	30.6%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	87.3%	56.1%	81.4%	35.3%	30.6%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	87.3%	56.1%	81.4%	35.3%	30.6%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	87.3%	56.1%	81.4%	35.3%	30.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	87%	70.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	81%	68.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	56%	66.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	35%	64.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	31%	63.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261019-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 18 · 04:13 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 66°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗