KORD / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST63%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

81%

56%

35%

31%

Consensus

63%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 59.0¢Risks 58.95u

ICONNO 41.0¢Risks 41.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +41.05u · ICON −41.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	—	—	—	23.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	31.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	—	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	39.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	—	—	—	47.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	33.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	42.8%	—	0.1%	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	—	10.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	—	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	21.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	53.9%	—	27.3%	—	—	41.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	12.8%	64.5%	—	—	40.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	48.6%	—	21.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	37.6%	55.6%	59.1%	31.7%	—	34.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	23.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	57.3%	33.7%	10.9%	43.4%	—	28.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	59.6%	—	15.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	53.8%	43.2%	31.6%	27.7%	—	27.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	30.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	51.6%	33.7%	30.9%	—	20.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	3.3%	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	57.5%	39.3%	55.0%	37.7%	—	23.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	57.6%	25.3%	49.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	55.2%	51.7%	50.9%	27.7%	—	21.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	57.1%	27.9%	53.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	54.6%	23.7%	45.4%	17.8%	—	23.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	53.8%	37.0%	59.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	34.8%	59.6%	27.9%	—	21.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	52.0%	24.9%	58.0%	—	—	23.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	58.2%	30.3%	65.1%	30.3%	—	23.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	29.8%	63.5%	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	60.8%	24.7%	67.9%	26.4%	0.0%	20.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	24.9%	68.5%	0.1%	—	19.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	52.3%	25.1%	66.9%	22.4%	19.1%	16.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	56.0%	39.3%	69.6%	18.3%	—	18.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	59.9%	48.8%	72.4%	26.6%	0.0%	20.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	42.3%	46.1%	70.9%	19.1%	—	12.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	51.3%	43.3%	73.9%	11.3%	17.3%	14.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	68.8%	61.0%	72.4%	14.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	68.2%	70.7%	75.5%	20.2%	28.0%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	87%	70.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	81%	68.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	56%	66.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	35%	64.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	31%	63.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261019-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 18 · 04:13 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 66°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗