KORD / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Oct 13 · 03:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

67%

63%

58%

52%

42%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 54.4¢Risks 54.35u

HRESNO 45.6¢Risks 45.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +45.65u · HRES −45.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:48:19+00:00	60.6%	47.2%	73.3%	27.4%	37.3%
2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:00	60.6%	47.2%	73.3%	27.4%	37.3%
2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00	60.6%	47.2%	73.3%	27.4%	37.3%
2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:00	60.6%	47.2%	73.3%	27.4%	37.3%
2026-10-12T10:50:10+00:00	60.6%	47.2%	73.3%	27.4%	37.3%
2026-10-12T11:35:31+00:00	60.6%	47.2%	67.9%	27.4%	37.3%
2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:00	60.6%	51.0%	67.9%	27.4%	37.3%
2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00	60.6%	51.0%	67.9%	27.4%	37.3%
2026-10-12T13:51:06+00:00	68.5%	51.0%	67.9%	27.4%	37.3%
2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:00	68.5%	51.0%	67.8%	27.4%	37.3%
2026-10-12T15:27:07+00:00	68.5%	51.0%	67.8%	27.4%	37.3%
2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00	68.5%	52.0%	67.8%	27.4%	37.3%
2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:00	68.5%	52.0%	67.8%	27.4%	37.3%
2026-10-12T17:43:13+00:00	68.5%	52.0%	62.6%	27.4%	37.3%
2026-10-12T18:28:20+00:00	68.5%	52.0%	62.6%	27.4%	37.3%
2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00	68.5%	52.0%	62.6%	27.4%	37.3%
2026-10-12T19:58:33+00:00	58.5%	52.0%	62.6%	41.9%	66.8%
2026-10-12T20:43:43+00:00	58.5%	52.0%	62.6%	41.9%	66.8%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00	58.5%	52.0%	62.6%	41.9%	66.8%
2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00	58.5%	52.0%	62.6%	41.9%	66.8%
2026-10-12T22:59:10+00:00	58.5%	52.0%	58.0%	41.9%	66.8%
2026-10-12T23:44:18+00:00	58.5%	52.0%	58.0%	41.9%	66.8%
2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:00	58.5%	52.0%	58.0%	41.9%	66.8%
2026-10-13T01:14:40+00:00	58.5%	52.0%	58.0%	41.9%	66.8%
2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00	63.2%	52.0%	58.0%	41.9%	66.8%
2026-10-13T02:44:56+00:00	63.2%	52.0%	58.0%	41.9%	66.8%
2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00	63.2%	52.0%	58.0%	41.9%	66.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	67%	70.8°F	9.9°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	63%	68.4°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	58%	67.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	67.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	52%	66.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	42%	65.2°F	6.3°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261019-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 67°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗