KORD / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Oct 13 · 03:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

67%

63%

58%

52%

42%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 54.4¢Risks 54.35u

HRESNO 45.6¢Risks 45.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +45.65u · HRES −45.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	—	—	—	20.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	26.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	34.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	—	—	—	—	41.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	28.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	0.1%	—	—	39.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	39.6%	—	7.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	—	—	—	34.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	30.4%	—	16.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	47.4%	—	22.1%	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	60.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	33.6%	9.6%	58.1%	—	—	34.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	16.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	48.6%	52.1%	25.7%	—	28.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	36.6%	—	18.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	27.2%	7.9%	36.4%	—	22.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	52.2%	—	11.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	46.2%	35.8%	25.1%	21.6%	—	21.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	24.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	43.6%	26.8%	24.2%	—	14.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	52.4%	2.0%	50.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	49.2%	31.5%	46.7%	30.0%	—	17.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	49.1%	19.0%	40.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	46.5%	43.0%	42.2%	20.8%	—	15.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	48.2%	20.9%	44.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	45.4%	17.2%	36.4%	12.4%	—	16.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	44.3%	28.4%	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	40.4%	26.3%	50.0%	20.3%	—	15.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	42.0%	17.7%	48.0%	—	—	16.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	21.9%	55.1%	21.9%	—	16.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	21.3%	53.2%	—	—	15.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	16.9%	57.6%	18.3%	0.0%	13.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	16.8%	57.8%	0.0%	—	12.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	40.8%	16.8%	55.8%	14.7%	12.1%	10.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	44.0%	28.3%	58.4%	11.4%	—	11.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	47.5%	36.5%	61.1%	17.4%	0.0%	13.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	33.7%	59.0%	11.5%	—	7.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	38.1%	30.7%	61.9%	6.1%	10.1%	8.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	55.6%	47.2%	59.7%	8.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	54.3%	57.2%	62.8%	11.5%	17.2%	15.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	66.2%	63.3%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	67%	70.8°F	9.9°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	63%	68.4°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	58%	67.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	67.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	52%	66.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	42%	65.2°F	6.3°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261019-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 67°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗