KORD / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 14 · 04:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

19%

14%

14%

13%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 9.4¢Risks 4.72u

EPSNO 90.5¢Risks 45.27u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +45.27u · EPS −45.27u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:48:19+00:00	12.2%	2.7%	18.8%	3.1%	12.8%
2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:00	12.2%	2.7%	18.8%	3.1%	12.8%
2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00	12.2%	2.7%	18.8%	3.1%	12.8%
2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:00	12.2%	2.7%	18.8%	3.1%	12.8%
2026-10-12T10:50:10+00:00	12.2%	2.7%	18.8%	3.1%	12.8%
2026-10-12T11:35:31+00:00	12.2%	2.7%	12.5%	3.1%	12.8%
2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:00	12.2%	2.4%	12.5%	3.1%	12.8%
2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00	12.2%	2.4%	12.5%	3.1%	12.8%
2026-10-12T13:51:06+00:00	17.2%	2.4%	12.5%	3.1%	12.8%
2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:00	17.3%	2.4%	12.6%	3.1%	12.9%
2026-10-12T15:27:07+00:00	17.3%	2.4%	12.6%	3.1%	12.9%
2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00	17.3%	2.6%	12.6%	3.1%	12.9%
2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:00	17.3%	2.6%	12.6%	3.1%	12.9%
2026-10-12T17:43:13+00:00	17.3%	2.6%	9.9%	3.1%	12.9%
2026-10-12T18:28:20+00:00	17.3%	2.6%	9.9%	3.1%	12.9%
2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00	17.3%	2.6%	9.9%	3.1%	12.9%
2026-10-12T19:58:33+00:00	11.3%	2.6%	9.9%	7.1%	35.4%
2026-10-12T20:43:43+00:00	11.3%	2.6%	9.9%	7.1%	35.4%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00	11.3%	2.6%	9.9%	7.1%	35.4%
2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00	11.3%	2.6%	9.9%	7.1%	35.4%
2026-10-12T22:59:10+00:00	11.3%	2.6%	7.9%	7.1%	35.4%
2026-10-12T23:44:18+00:00	11.3%	2.6%	7.9%	7.1%	35.4%
2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:00	11.3%	2.6%	7.9%	7.1%	35.4%
2026-10-13T01:14:40+00:00	11.3%	2.6%	7.9%	7.1%	35.4%
2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00	13.9%	2.6%	7.9%	7.1%	35.4%
2026-10-13T02:44:56+00:00	13.9%	2.6%	7.9%	7.1%	35.4%
2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00	13.9%	2.6%	7.9%	7.1%	35.4%
2026-10-13T04:15:54+00:00	13.9%	2.6%	7.9%	7.1%	35.4%
2026-10-13T05:01:45+00:00	13.9%	2.6%	7.9%	7.1%	35.4%
2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00	13.9%	2.6%	10.6%	7.1%	35.4%
2026-10-13T06:32:11+00:00	13.9%	2.6%	10.6%	7.1%	35.4%
2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00	13.9%	2.6%	10.6%	7.1%	35.4%
2026-10-13T08:03:27+00:00	20.9%	2.6%	10.6%	10.3%	13.4%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	20.9%	2.6%	10.6%	10.3%	13.4%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	20.9%	2.6%	10.6%	10.3%	13.4%
2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00	20.9%	2.6%	10.6%	10.3%	13.4%
2026-10-13T11:05:19+00:00	20.9%	2.6%	10.6%	10.3%	13.4%
2026-10-13T11:50:36+00:00	20.9%	0.2%	8.1%	10.3%	13.4%
2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00	20.9%	0.2%	8.1%	10.3%	13.4%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	20.9%	0.2%	8.1%	10.3%	13.4%
2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00	22.0%	0.2%	8.1%	10.3%	13.7%
2026-10-13T14:56:04+00:00	22.0%	0.2%	8.1%	10.3%	13.7%
2026-10-13T15:41:27+00:00	22.0%	0.3%	8.1%	10.3%	13.7%
2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00	22.0%	0.3%	8.1%	10.3%	13.7%
2026-10-13T17:12:10+00:00	22.0%	0.3%	8.8%	10.3%	13.7%
2026-10-13T17:57:17+00:00	22.0%	0.3%	8.8%	10.3%	13.7%
2026-10-13T18:42:23+00:00	22.0%	0.3%	8.8%	10.3%	13.7%
2026-10-13T19:27:28+00:00	22.0%	0.3%	8.8%	10.3%	13.7%
2026-10-13T20:12:35+00:00	18.3%	0.3%	8.8%	10.3%	18.5%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	18.3%	0.3%	8.8%	10.3%	18.5%
2026-10-13T21:43:16+00:00	18.3%	0.3%	8.8%	10.3%	18.5%
2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:00	18.3%	0.3%	8.8%	10.3%	18.5%
2026-10-13T23:13:35+00:00	18.3%	0.3%	13.3%	13.6%	18.5%
2026-10-13T23:58:45+00:00	18.3%	0.3%	13.3%	13.6%	18.6%
2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:00	18.3%	0.3%	13.3%	13.6%	18.6%
2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00	14.1%	0.3%	13.3%	13.6%	18.6%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	14.1%	0.3%	13.3%	13.6%	18.6%
2026-10-14T02:59:46+00:00	14.1%	0.3%	13.3%	13.6%	18.6%
2026-10-14T03:45:29+00:00	14.1%	0.3%	13.3%	13.6%	18.6%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	14.1%	0.3%	13.3%	13.6%	18.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	19%	68.2°F	7.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	14%	68.8°F	5.3°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	14%	67.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	13%	69.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	10%	68.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	66.1°F	3.0°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	67.0°F	2.6°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261019-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Chicago runs hot-for-here: 75°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗