KORD / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 14 · 04:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

19%

14%

14%

13%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 9.4¢Risks 4.72u

EPSNO 90.5¢Risks 45.27u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +45.27u · EPS −45.27u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	2.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	2.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	1.9%	—	—	4.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	14.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	0.4%	12.4%	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	7.4%	8.7%	2.0%	—	2.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	1.9%	0.2%	3.5%	—	1.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	2.9%	1.4%	1.0%	—	1.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	3.9%	1.3%	1.1%	—	0.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	0.0%	5.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	1.6%	3.9%	1.4%	—	0.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	4.1%	0.5%	2.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	2.7%	2.5%	0.5%	—	0.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	0.4%	2.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	0.3%	1.4%	0.1%	—	0.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	0.7%	2.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	0.5%	2.5%	0.3%	—	0.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	0.2%	2.0%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	0.2%	2.6%	0.2%	—	0.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	0.2%	2.0%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	0.1%	2.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	0.1%	1.9%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.1%	1.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.1%	1.4%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.2%	1.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.9%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.9%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.2%	0.5%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.3%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	0.4%	0.4%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	19%	68.2°F	7.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	14%	68.8°F	5.3°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	14%	67.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	13%	69.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	10%	68.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	66.1°F	3.0°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	67.0°F	2.6°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261019-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Chicago runs hot-for-here: 75°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗