KORD / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST51%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

75%

73%

44%

30%

17%

Consensus

51%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 46.0¢Risks 46.00u

ICONNO 54.0¢Risks 54.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +54.00u · ICON −54.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T11:50:36+00:00	90.0%	47.7%	75.3%	53.8%	32.9%
2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00	90.0%	47.7%	75.3%	53.8%	32.9%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	90.0%	47.7%	75.3%	53.8%	32.9%
2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00	84.9%	47.7%	75.3%	53.8%	32.9%
2026-10-13T14:56:04+00:00	84.9%	47.7%	75.3%	53.8%	32.9%
2026-10-13T15:41:27+00:00	84.9%	51.1%	75.3%	53.8%	32.9%
2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00	84.9%	51.1%	75.3%	53.8%	32.9%
2026-10-13T17:12:10+00:00	84.9%	51.1%	78.9%	53.8%	32.9%
2026-10-13T17:57:17+00:00	84.9%	51.1%	78.9%	53.8%	32.9%
2026-10-13T18:42:23+00:00	84.9%	51.1%	78.9%	53.8%	32.9%
2026-10-13T19:27:28+00:00	84.9%	51.1%	78.9%	53.8%	32.9%
2026-10-13T20:12:35+00:00	89.0%	51.1%	78.9%	53.8%	61.5%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	89.0%	51.1%	78.9%	53.8%	61.5%
2026-10-13T21:43:16+00:00	89.0%	51.1%	78.9%	53.8%	61.5%
2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:00	89.0%	51.1%	78.9%	53.8%	61.5%
2026-10-13T23:13:35+00:00	89.0%	51.1%	82.2%	68.2%	61.5%
2026-10-13T23:58:45+00:00	89.0%	51.1%	82.2%	68.2%	61.5%
2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:00	89.0%	51.1%	82.2%	68.2%	61.5%
2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00	84.9%	51.1%	82.2%	68.2%	61.5%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	84.9%	51.1%	82.2%	68.2%	61.5%
2026-10-14T02:59:46+00:00	84.9%	51.1%	82.2%	68.2%	61.5%
2026-10-15T16:19:59+00:00	75.9%	37.9%	73.7%	33.9%	59.9%
2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00	75.9%	37.9%	75.2%	33.9%	59.9%
2026-10-15T17:50:43+00:00	75.9%	37.9%	75.2%	33.9%	59.9%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	75.9%	37.9%	75.2%	33.9%	59.9%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	75.9%	37.9%	75.2%	33.9%	59.9%
2026-10-15T20:06:17+00:00	77.2%	37.9%	75.2%	39.1%	52.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	77.2%	37.9%	75.2%	39.1%	52.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	77.2%	37.9%	75.2%	39.1%	52.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00	77.2%	37.9%	75.2%	39.1%	52.0%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00	77.2%	37.9%	74.4%	39.1%	52.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00	77.2%	37.9%	74.4%	39.1%	52.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00	77.2%	37.9%	74.4%	39.1%	52.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:44+00:00	75.3%	37.9%	74.4%	39.1%	52.0%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	75.3%	37.9%	74.4%	39.1%	52.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:29+00:00	75.3%	37.9%	74.4%	39.1%	52.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	75.3%	37.9%	74.4%	39.1%	52.0%
2026-10-17T04:41:41+00:00	79.0%	35.6%	74.9%	37.4%	41.0%
2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00	79.0%	35.6%	74.1%	37.4%	41.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	79.0%	35.6%	74.1%	37.4%	41.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	79.0%	35.6%	74.1%	37.4%	41.0%
2026-10-17T07:44:27+00:00	80.6%	35.6%	74.1%	30.3%	16.9%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	80.6%	35.6%	74.1%	30.3%	16.9%
2026-10-17T09:16:36+00:00	80.6%	35.6%	74.1%	30.3%	16.9%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	80.6%	35.6%	74.1%	30.3%	16.9%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	80.6%	35.6%	74.1%	30.3%	16.9%
2026-10-17T11:32:04+00:00	80.6%	44.1%	73.3%	30.3%	16.9%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	80.6%	44.1%	73.3%	30.3%	16.9%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	80.6%	44.1%	73.3%	30.3%	16.9%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00	75.1%	44.1%	73.3%	30.3%	16.9%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00	75.1%	44.3%	73.3%	30.3%	16.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	75%	71.4°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	73%	70.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	69.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	44%	68.1°F	2.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	66.2°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	17%	64.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261020-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 13 · 11:50 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 69°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗