KORD / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST51%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

75%

73%

44%

30%

17%

Consensus

51%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 46.0¢Risks 46.00u

ICONNO 54.0¢Risks 54.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +54.00u · ICON −54.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	32.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	41.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	1.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	—	—	—	41.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	61.2%	—	36.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	42.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	26.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	54.4%	—	—	44.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	60.7%	—	18.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	51.9%	—	42.9%	—	—	34.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	5.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	74.0%	6.6%	17.1%	—	—	35.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	13.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	73.1%	38.9%	36.9%	8.7%	—	36.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	45.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	67.7%	56.6%	48.5%	35.0%	—	24.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	62.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	39.4%	68.4%	17.9%	—	16.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	47.7%	—	71.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	40.5%	52.4%	11.5%	—	18.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	50.8%	1.2%	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	53.3%	30.8%	49.2%	23.2%	—	20.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	51.7%	19.6%	52.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	52.6%	37.1%	40.5%	24.8%	—	16.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	51.8%	29.4%	25.7%	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	52.8%	25.9%	40.0%	21.6%	—	21.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	54.7%	22.4%	42.5%	—	—	19.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	53.9%	13.6%	52.9%	17.1%	—	17.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	46.0%	18.3%	58.0%	—	—	15.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	13.9%	47.9%	6.4%	0.0%	11.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	15.6%	45.8%	—	—	10.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	39.2%	18.3%	48.9%	9.4%	—	10.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	28.6%	21.4%	61.1%	0.2%	—	7.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	33.1%	17.5%	53.5%	3.3%	0.0%	6.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	39.3%	29.3%	53.6%	3.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	36.5%	30.9%	56.2%	5.2%	7.1%	9.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	38.5%	59.0%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	75%	71.4°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	73%	70.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	69.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	44%	68.1°F	2.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	66.2°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	17%	64.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261020-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 13 · 11:50 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 69°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗