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KORD / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST61%Oct 13 · 11:05 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
86%
WN2
72%
EPS
49%
HRES
48%
ICON
29%
Consensus
61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 57.9¢Risks 57.90u
VS
ICONNO 42.1¢Risks 42.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +42.10u · ICON −42.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 86.5% · 2026-10-13T08:03:27+00:00AIFS Single: 86.5% · 2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00AIFS Single: 86.5% · 2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00AIFS Single: 86.5% · 2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00AIFS Single: 86.5% · 2026-10-13T11:05:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 49.0% · 2026-10-13T08:03:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 49.0% · 2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 49.0% · 2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 49.0% · 2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 49.0% · 2026-10-13T11:05:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 71.9% · 2026-10-13T08:03:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 71.9% · 2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 71.9% · 2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 71.9% · 2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 71.9% · 2026-10-13T11:05:19+00:00IFS HRES: 47.5% · 2026-10-13T08:03:27+00:00IFS HRES: 47.5% · 2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00IFS HRES: 47.5% · 2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00IFS HRES: 47.5% · 2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00IFS HRES: 47.5% · 2026-10-13T11:05:19+00:00ICON: 29.3% · 2026-10-13T08:03:27+00:00ICON: 29.3% · 2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00ICON: 29.3% · 2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00ICON: 29.3% · 2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00ICON: 29.3% · 2026-10-13T11:05:19+00:0010-13 08:0310-13 09:3410-13 11:05
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-13T11:05:19+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-13T08:03:27+00:0086.5%49.0%71.9%47.5%29.3%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:0086.5%49.0%71.9%47.5%29.3%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:0086.5%49.0%71.9%47.5%29.3%
2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:0086.5%49.0%71.9%47.5%29.3%
2026-10-13T11:05:19+00:0086.5%49.0%71.9%47.5%29.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single86%75.7°F5.6°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 272%72.6°F5.3°F2026-10-12 18:00Pending
National Blend55%70.0°F4.4°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble49%69.4°F3.8°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending
IFS HRES48%69.1°F6.3°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending
ICON29%64.1°F9.9°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261020-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 70°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗