KORD / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST61%Oct 13 · 11:05 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

72%

49%

48%

29%

Consensus

61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 57.9¢Risks 57.90u

ICONNO 42.1¢Risks 42.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +42.10u · ICON −42.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	—	—	—	36.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	22.2%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	36.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	55.4%	—	30.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	39.2%	—	—	—	—	36.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	21.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	48.1%	—	—	38.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	14.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	36.6%	—	—	28.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	59.2%	—	4.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	68.2%	4.7%	13.2%	—	—	29.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	10.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	32.3%	30.5%	6.3%	—	29.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	59.2%	—	38.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	60.8%	49.3%	41.3%	28.5%	—	18.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	48.5%	—	55.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	32.3%	61.3%	13.4%	—	12.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	64.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	33.0%	44.4%	8.1%	—	14.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	42.7%	0.7%	25.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	45.0%	23.8%	40.9%	17.3%	—	14.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	43.2%	14.2%	44.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	43.9%	29.1%	32.2%	18.4%	—	11.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	42.9%	22.2%	19.0%	—	—	12.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	19.0%	31.4%	15.4%	—	15.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	45.3%	15.9%	33.5%	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	9.0%	43.2%	11.6%	—	12.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	36.3%	12.4%	48.0%	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	27.6%	9.0%	37.8%	3.8%	0.0%	7.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	10.1%	35.5%	—	—	6.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	11.9%	38.2%	5.6%	—	6.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	19.8%	14.1%	50.0%	0.1%	—	4.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	23.3%	11.0%	41.9%	1.7%	0.0%	3.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	19.9%	41.6%	1.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	25.6%	20.8%	43.8%	2.6%	3.7%	5.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	26.9%	46.1%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	86%	75.7°F	5.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	72%	72.6°F	5.3°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	70.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	49%	69.4°F	3.8°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	48%	69.1°F	6.3°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
ICON	29%	64.1°F	9.9°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261020-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 70°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗