KORD / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST23%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

52%

40%

15%

12%

Consensus

23%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 30.1¢Risks 30.10u

ICONNO 69.9¢Risks 69.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +69.90u · ICON −69.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T03:45:29+00:00	75.1%	29.9%	69.9%	56.3%	53.6%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	75.1%	29.9%	69.9%	56.3%	53.6%
2026-10-14T05:15:53+00:00	75.1%	29.9%	69.9%	56.3%	53.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	75.1%	29.9%	69.9%	56.3%	53.6%
2026-10-14T06:46:15+00:00	75.1%	29.9%	69.9%	56.3%	53.6%
2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00	77.5%	29.9%	69.9%	56.3%	63.9%
2026-10-14T08:16:35+00:00	77.5%	29.9%	69.9%	56.3%	63.9%
2026-10-14T09:01:46+00:00	77.5%	29.9%	69.9%	56.3%	63.9%
2026-10-14T09:46:53+00:00	77.5%	29.9%	69.9%	56.3%	63.9%
2026-10-14T10:32:57+00:00	77.5%	29.9%	69.9%	35.7%	63.9%
2026-10-14T11:20:50+00:00	77.5%	13.1%	61.1%	35.7%	63.9%
2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00	77.5%	13.1%	61.1%	35.7%	63.9%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	77.5%	13.1%	61.1%	35.7%	63.9%
2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00	65.4%	13.1%	61.1%	35.7%	63.9%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	65.8%	13.6%	61.0%	35.8%	63.8%
2026-10-14T15:12:16+00:00	65.8%	13.8%	61.0%	35.8%	63.8%
2026-10-14T15:57:56+00:00	65.8%	13.8%	61.0%	35.8%	63.8%
2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00	65.8%	13.8%	61.0%	35.8%	63.8%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00	65.8%	13.8%	55.1%	35.8%	63.8%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	65.8%	13.8%	55.1%	35.8%	63.8%
2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00	65.8%	13.8%	55.1%	35.8%	63.8%
2026-10-14T19:43:34+00:00	55.2%	13.8%	55.1%	20.6%	51.1%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	55.2%	13.8%	55.1%	20.6%	51.1%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	55.2%	13.8%	55.1%	20.6%	51.1%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	55.2%	13.8%	55.1%	20.6%	51.1%
2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00	55.2%	13.8%	55.1%	20.6%	51.1%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	55.2%	13.8%	50.0%	20.6%	51.1%
2026-10-15T00:14:41+00:00	55.2%	13.8%	50.0%	20.6%	51.1%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00	55.2%	13.8%	50.0%	20.6%	51.1%
2026-10-15T01:46:18+00:00	57.4%	13.8%	50.0%	20.6%	51.1%
2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00	57.4%	13.8%	50.0%	20.6%	51.1%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00	57.4%	13.8%	50.0%	20.6%	51.1%
2026-10-15T04:02:09+00:00	57.4%	13.8%	50.0%	20.6%	51.1%
2026-10-15T04:47:54+00:00	57.4%	13.8%	50.0%	20.6%	51.1%
2026-10-15T05:33:17+00:00	57.4%	13.8%	50.9%	20.6%	51.1%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00	57.4%	13.8%	50.9%	20.6%	51.1%
2026-10-15T07:03:37+00:00	57.4%	13.8%	50.9%	20.6%	51.1%
2026-10-15T07:49:42+00:00	67.1%	13.8%	50.9%	22.3%	46.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	67.1%	13.8%	50.9%	22.3%	46.0%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	67.1%	13.8%	50.9%	22.3%	46.0%
2026-10-15T10:07:32+00:00	67.1%	13.8%	50.9%	22.3%	46.0%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00	67.1%	13.8%	50.9%	22.3%	46.0%
2026-10-15T11:39:18+00:00	67.1%	13.8%	55.8%	22.3%	46.0%
2026-10-15T12:24:51+00:00	67.1%	16.8%	55.8%	22.3%	46.0%
2026-10-15T13:10:19+00:00	67.1%	16.8%	55.8%	22.3%	46.0%
2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00	61.9%	16.8%	55.8%	22.3%	46.0%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	61.9%	16.8%	55.8%	22.3%	46.7%
2026-10-15T15:34:09+00:00	61.9%	14.1%	55.8%	22.3%	46.7%
2026-10-16T04:24:06+00:00	61.1%	14.1%	56.8%	26.7%	38.8%
2026-10-16T05:10:27+00:00	61.1%	14.1%	53.9%	26.7%	38.8%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	61.1%	14.1%	53.9%	26.7%	38.8%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	61.1%	14.1%	53.9%	26.7%	38.8%
2026-10-16T07:26:14+00:00	61.1%	14.1%	53.9%	26.7%	38.8%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	62.8%	14.1%	53.9%	26.7%	35.6%
2026-10-16T08:56:36+00:00	62.8%	14.1%	53.9%	26.7%	35.6%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	62.8%	14.1%	53.9%	26.7%	35.6%
2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00	62.8%	14.1%	53.9%	26.7%	35.6%
2026-10-16T11:12:16+00:00	62.8%	14.1%	53.2%	26.7%	35.6%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	62.8%	14.1%	53.2%	26.7%	35.6%
2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00	62.8%	14.1%	53.2%	26.7%	35.6%
2026-10-16T13:28:30+00:00	62.8%	14.1%	53.2%	26.7%	35.6%
2026-10-16T14:19:45+00:00	62.8%	14.1%	53.2%	14.0%	35.6%
2026-10-16T15:05:30+00:00	62.8%	13.3%	53.2%	14.0%	35.6%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	62.8%	13.3%	53.2%	14.0%	35.6%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	62.8%	13.3%	53.2%	14.0%	35.6%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	62.8%	13.3%	55.3%	14.0%	35.6%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	62.8%	13.3%	55.3%	14.0%	35.6%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	62.8%	13.3%	55.3%	14.0%	35.6%
2026-10-16T19:37:00+00:00	63.7%	13.3%	55.3%	14.0%	26.2%
2026-10-16T20:22:28+00:00	63.7%	13.3%	55.3%	14.0%	26.2%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	63.7%	13.3%	55.3%	14.0%	26.2%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	63.7%	13.3%	55.3%	14.0%	26.2%
2026-10-16T22:38:05+00:00	63.7%	13.3%	55.3%	23.6%	26.2%
2026-10-16T23:23:30+00:00	63.7%	13.3%	55.3%	23.6%	26.2%
2026-10-17T00:09:41+00:00	63.7%	13.3%	55.3%	23.6%	26.2%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	63.7%	13.3%	55.3%	23.6%	26.2%
2026-10-17T01:40:07+00:00	64.5%	13.3%	55.3%	23.6%	26.2%
2026-10-17T02:25:19+00:00	64.5%	13.3%	55.3%	23.6%	26.2%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	64.5%	13.3%	55.3%	23.6%	26.2%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	64.5%	13.3%	55.3%	23.6%	26.2%
2026-10-17T15:24:37+00:00	58.3%	15.1%	51.2%	16.8%	7.2%
2026-10-17T16:10:31+00:00	58.3%	15.1%	51.2%	16.8%	7.2%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	58.3%	15.1%	51.2%	16.8%	7.2%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	58.3%	15.1%	45.3%	16.8%	7.2%
2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00	58.3%	15.1%	45.3%	16.8%	7.2%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	58.3%	15.1%	45.3%	16.8%	7.2%
2026-10-17T19:56:11+00:00	50.0%	15.1%	45.3%	12.2%	8.3%
2026-10-17T20:41:28+00:00	50.0%	15.1%	45.3%	12.2%	8.3%
2026-10-17T21:26:37+00:00	50.0%	15.1%	45.3%	12.2%	8.3%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	50.0%	15.1%	45.3%	12.2%	8.3%
2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00	50.0%	15.1%	45.3%	12.2%	8.3%
2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00	50.0%	15.0%	39.5%	12.2%	8.3%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	50.0%	15.0%	39.5%	12.2%	8.3%
2026-10-18T01:12:53+00:00	50.0%	15.0%	39.5%	12.2%	8.3%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	51.9%	15.0%	39.5%	12.2%	8.3%
2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00	51.9%	15.0%	39.5%	12.2%	8.3%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	51.9%	15.0%	39.5%	12.2%	8.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	71.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	52%	70.7°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	40%	69.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	15%	67.6°F	2.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	65.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	8%	65.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261020-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 14 · 03:45 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 71°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗