KORD / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST23%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

52%

40%

15%

12%

Consensus

23%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 30.1¢Risks 30.10u

ICONNO 69.9¢Risks 69.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +69.90u · ICON −69.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	—	23.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	31.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	23.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	23.8%	—	—	—	—	28.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	—	—	—	30.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	25.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	30.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	31.3%	—	41.9%	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	48.1%	—	11.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	30.6%	—	—	23.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	52.6%	—	2.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	62.0%	3.2%	9.9%	—	—	23.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	7.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	60.4%	26.3%	24.6%	4.4%	—	24.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	32.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	53.6%	42.0%	34.3%	22.6%	—	14.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	47.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	30.3%	25.8%	53.8%	9.7%	—	9.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	—	57.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	26.1%	36.7%	5.5%	—	10.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	0.4%	19.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	17.8%	33.0%	12.5%	—	10.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	35.0%	9.9%	35.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	22.1%	24.8%	13.1%	—	7.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	34.2%	16.1%	13.5%	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	34.7%	13.4%	23.7%	10.6%	—	10.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	36.1%	10.8%	25.3%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	34.8%	5.6%	33.9%	7.5%	—	7.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	8.0%	38.2%	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	5.5%	28.5%	2.1%	0.0%	4.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	20.5%	6.2%	26.2%	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	7.3%	28.2%	3.1%	—	3.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	12.9%	8.7%	38.9%	0.0%	—	2.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	15.3%	6.5%	31.0%	0.8%	0.0%	1.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	19.1%	12.6%	30.4%	0.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	16.6%	13.0%	32.0%	1.2%	1.8%	2.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	17.4%	33.7%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	71.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	52%	70.7°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	40%	69.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	15%	67.6°F	2.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	65.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	8%	65.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261020-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 14 · 03:45 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 71°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗