KORD / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 16:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

23%

12%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 12.1¢Risks 12.05u

EPSNO 87.9¢Risks 87.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +87.95u · EPS −87.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:03:27+00:00	58.5%	9.0%	36.1%	19.7%	14.7%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	58.5%	9.0%	36.1%	19.7%	14.7%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	58.5%	9.0%	36.1%	19.7%	14.7%
2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00	58.5%	9.0%	36.1%	19.7%	14.7%
2026-10-13T11:05:19+00:00	58.5%	9.0%	36.1%	19.7%	14.7%
2026-10-13T11:50:37+00:00	58.5%	3.8%	30.0%	19.7%	14.7%
2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00	58.5%	3.8%	30.0%	19.7%	14.7%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	58.5%	3.8%	30.0%	19.7%	14.7%
2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00	48.6%	3.8%	30.1%	19.7%	14.7%
2026-10-13T14:56:04+00:00	48.6%	3.8%	30.1%	19.7%	14.7%
2026-10-13T15:41:27+00:00	48.6%	5.1%	30.1%	19.7%	14.7%
2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00	48.6%	5.1%	30.1%	19.7%	14.7%
2026-10-13T17:12:10+00:00	48.6%	5.1%	34.4%	19.7%	14.7%
2026-10-13T17:57:17+00:00	48.6%	5.1%	34.4%	19.7%	14.7%
2026-10-13T18:42:23+00:00	48.6%	5.1%	34.4%	19.7%	14.7%
2026-10-13T19:27:28+00:00	48.6%	5.1%	34.4%	19.7%	14.7%
2026-10-13T20:12:35+00:00	56.4%	5.1%	34.4%	19.7%	37.7%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	56.4%	5.1%	34.4%	19.7%	37.7%
2026-10-13T21:43:16+00:00	56.4%	5.1%	34.4%	19.7%	37.7%
2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:00	56.4%	5.1%	34.4%	19.7%	37.7%
2026-10-13T23:13:35+00:00	56.4%	5.1%	38.9%	31.8%	37.7%
2026-10-13T23:58:45+00:00	56.4%	5.1%	38.9%	31.8%	37.7%
2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:00	56.4%	5.1%	38.9%	31.8%	37.7%
2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00	48.6%	5.1%	38.9%	31.8%	37.7%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	48.6%	5.1%	38.9%	31.8%	37.7%
2026-10-14T02:59:46+00:00	48.6%	5.1%	38.9%	31.8%	37.7%
2026-10-14T03:45:29+00:00	48.6%	5.1%	38.9%	31.8%	37.7%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	48.6%	5.1%	38.9%	31.8%	37.7%
2026-10-14T05:15:53+00:00	48.6%	5.1%	38.9%	31.8%	37.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	48.6%	5.1%	38.9%	31.8%	37.7%
2026-10-14T06:46:15+00:00	48.6%	5.1%	38.9%	31.8%	37.7%
2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00	50.0%	5.1%	38.9%	31.8%	41.6%
2026-10-14T08:16:35+00:00	50.0%	5.1%	38.9%	31.8%	41.6%
2026-10-14T09:01:46+00:00	50.0%	5.1%	38.9%	31.8%	41.6%
2026-10-14T09:46:53+00:00	50.0%	5.1%	38.9%	31.8%	41.6%
2026-10-14T10:32:57+00:00	50.0%	5.1%	38.9%	16.5%	41.6%
2026-10-14T11:20:50+00:00	50.0%	0.7%	27.8%	16.5%	41.6%
2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00	50.0%	0.7%	27.8%	16.5%	41.6%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	50.0%	0.7%	27.8%	16.5%	41.6%
2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00	36.0%	0.7%	27.8%	16.5%	41.6%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	36.9%	0.7%	28.1%	16.5%	41.6%
2026-10-14T15:12:16+00:00	36.9%	0.7%	28.1%	16.5%	41.6%
2026-10-14T15:57:56+00:00	36.9%	0.7%	28.1%	16.5%	41.6%
2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00	36.9%	0.7%	28.1%	16.5%	41.6%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00	36.9%	0.7%	23.3%	16.5%	41.6%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	36.9%	0.7%	23.3%	16.5%	41.6%
2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00	36.9%	0.7%	23.3%	16.5%	41.6%
2026-10-14T19:43:34+00:00	27.0%	0.7%	23.3%	7.7%	29.5%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	27.0%	0.7%	23.3%	7.7%	29.5%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	27.0%	0.7%	23.3%	7.7%	29.5%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	27.0%	0.7%	23.3%	7.7%	29.5%
2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00	27.0%	0.7%	23.3%	7.7%	29.5%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	27.0%	0.7%	19.6%	7.7%	29.5%
2026-10-15T00:14:41+00:00	27.0%	0.7%	19.6%	7.7%	29.5%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00	27.0%	0.7%	19.6%	7.7%	29.5%
2026-10-15T01:46:18+00:00	28.9%	0.7%	19.6%	7.7%	29.5%
2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00	28.9%	0.7%	19.6%	7.7%	29.5%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00	28.9%	0.7%	19.6%	7.7%	29.5%
2026-10-15T04:02:09+00:00	28.9%	0.7%	19.6%	7.7%	29.5%
2026-10-15T04:47:54+00:00	28.9%	0.7%	19.6%	7.7%	29.5%
2026-10-15T05:33:17+00:00	28.9%	0.7%	20.2%	7.7%	29.5%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00	28.9%	0.7%	20.2%	7.7%	29.5%
2026-10-15T07:03:37+00:00	28.9%	0.7%	20.2%	7.7%	29.5%
2026-10-15T07:49:42+00:00	35.9%	0.7%	20.2%	7.3%	21.9%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	35.9%	0.7%	20.2%	7.3%	21.9%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	35.9%	0.7%	20.2%	7.3%	21.9%
2026-10-15T10:07:32+00:00	35.9%	0.7%	20.2%	7.3%	21.9%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00	35.9%	0.7%	20.2%	7.3%	21.9%
2026-10-15T11:39:18+00:00	35.9%	0.7%	20.4%	7.3%	21.9%
2026-10-15T12:24:51+00:00	35.9%	0.6%	20.4%	7.3%	21.9%
2026-10-15T13:10:19+00:00	35.9%	0.6%	20.4%	7.3%	21.9%
2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00	30.7%	0.6%	20.4%	7.3%	21.9%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	30.7%	0.6%	20.4%	7.3%	22.6%
2026-10-15T15:34:09+00:00	30.7%	0.4%	20.4%	7.3%	22.6%
2026-10-15T16:19:59+00:00	30.7%	0.4%	20.4%	7.3%	22.6%
2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00	30.7%	0.4%	21.8%	7.3%	22.6%
2026-10-15T17:50:43+00:00	30.7%	0.4%	21.8%	7.3%	22.6%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	30.7%	0.4%	21.8%	7.3%	22.6%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	30.7%	0.4%	21.8%	7.3%	22.6%
2026-10-15T20:06:17+00:00	32.2%	0.4%	21.8%	9.4%	17.1%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	32.2%	0.4%	21.8%	9.4%	17.1%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	32.2%	0.4%	21.8%	9.4%	17.1%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00	32.2%	0.4%	21.8%	9.4%	17.1%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00	32.2%	0.4%	21.1%	9.4%	17.1%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00	32.1%	0.4%	21.1%	9.4%	17.1%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00	32.1%	0.4%	21.1%	9.4%	17.1%
2026-10-16T01:22:44+00:00	30.0%	0.4%	21.1%	9.4%	17.1%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	30.0%	0.4%	21.1%	9.4%	17.1%
2026-10-16T02:53:29+00:00	30.0%	0.4%	21.1%	9.4%	17.1%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	30.0%	0.4%	21.1%	9.4%	17.1%
2026-10-16T04:24:06+00:00	30.0%	0.4%	21.1%	9.4%	17.1%
2026-10-16T05:10:27+00:00	30.0%	0.4%	19.1%	9.4%	17.1%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	30.0%	0.4%	19.1%	9.4%	17.1%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	30.0%	0.4%	19.1%	9.4%	17.1%
2026-10-16T07:26:14+00:00	30.0%	0.4%	19.1%	9.4%	17.1%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	29.3%	0.4%	19.1%	9.4%	11.6%
2026-10-16T08:56:36+00:00	29.3%	0.4%	19.1%	9.4%	11.6%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	29.3%	0.4%	19.1%	9.4%	11.6%
2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00	29.3%	0.4%	19.1%	9.4%	11.6%
2026-10-16T11:12:16+00:00	29.3%	0.5%	16.0%	9.4%	11.6%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	29.3%	0.5%	16.0%	9.4%	11.6%
2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00	29.3%	0.5%	16.0%	9.4%	11.6%
2026-10-16T13:28:30+00:00	29.3%	0.5%	16.0%	9.4%	11.6%
2026-10-16T14:19:45+00:00	29.3%	0.5%	16.0%	3.0%	11.6%
2026-10-16T15:05:30+00:00	29.3%	0.5%	16.0%	3.0%	11.6%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	29.3%	0.5%	16.0%	3.0%	11.6%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	29.3%	0.5%	16.0%	3.0%	11.6%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	29.3%	0.5%	17.3%	3.0%	11.6%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	29.3%	0.5%	17.3%	3.0%	11.6%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	29.3%	0.5%	17.3%	3.0%	11.6%
2026-10-16T19:37:00+00:00	30.0%	0.5%	17.3%	3.0%	7.2%
2026-10-16T20:22:28+00:00	30.0%	0.5%	17.3%	3.0%	7.2%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	30.0%	0.5%	17.3%	3.0%	7.2%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	30.0%	0.5%	17.3%	3.0%	7.2%
2026-10-16T22:38:05+00:00	30.0%	0.5%	17.3%	6.4%	7.2%
2026-10-16T23:23:30+00:00	30.0%	0.5%	17.3%	6.4%	7.2%
2026-10-17T00:09:41+00:00	30.0%	0.5%	17.3%	6.4%	7.2%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	30.0%	0.5%	17.3%	6.4%	7.2%
2026-10-17T01:40:07+00:00	30.8%	0.5%	17.3%	6.4%	7.2%
2026-10-17T02:25:19+00:00	30.8%	0.5%	17.3%	6.4%	7.2%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	30.8%	0.5%	17.3%	6.4%	7.2%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	30.8%	0.5%	17.3%	6.4%	7.2%
2026-10-17T04:41:41+00:00	30.8%	0.5%	17.3%	6.4%	7.2%
2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00	30.8%	0.5%	16.7%	6.4%	7.2%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	30.8%	0.5%	16.7%	6.4%	7.2%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	30.8%	0.5%	16.7%	6.4%	7.2%
2026-10-17T11:32:04+00:00	29.6%	0.9%	12.4%	3.2%	0.7%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	29.6%	0.9%	12.4%	3.2%	0.7%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	29.6%	0.9%	12.4%	3.2%	0.7%
2026-10-17T15:24:37+00:00	23.4%	0.7%	12.4%	3.2%	0.7%
2026-10-17T16:10:31+00:00	23.4%	0.7%	12.4%	3.2%	0.7%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	23.4%	0.7%	12.4%	3.2%	0.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	23%	71.4°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	19%	71.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	12%	70.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	3%	66.2°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	67.6°F	2.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	<1%	64.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261020-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Chicago runs hot-for-here: 75°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗