KORD / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 16:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

23%

12%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 12.1¢Risks 12.05u

EPSNO 87.9¢Risks 87.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +87.95u · EPS −87.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	2.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	2.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	10.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	19.2%	—	—	—	—	15.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	12.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	13.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	10.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	—	—	—	13.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	20.2%	—	—	13.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	3.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	12.3%	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	35.5%	0.6%	2.5%	—	—	8.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	9.0%	8.2%	0.8%	—	7.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	11.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	26.0%	17.5%	12.8%	6.9%	—	3.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	21.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	7.8%	25.1%	1.9%	—	1.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	27.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	7.5%	12.7%	0.8%	—	1.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	11.4%	0.0%	4.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	3.9%	10.1%	2.3%	—	1.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	10.7%	1.6%	11.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	5.0%	5.9%	2.3%	—	1.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	2.9%	2.2%	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	9.4%	2.1%	5.0%	1.5%	—	1.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	1.5%	5.3%	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	8.6%	0.5%	8.2%	0.8%	—	0.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	5.4%	0.8%	9.6%	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	0.4%	5.5%	0.1%	0.0%	0.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	0.5%	4.5%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	0.5%	4.7%	0.1%	—	0.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	0.6%	7.9%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	0.4%	4.8%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	0.9%	4.3%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	0.9%	4.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	1.3%	4.3%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.6%	4.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	1.4%	6.2%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	0.4%	5.9%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	5.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	23%	71.4°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	19%	71.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	12%	70.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	3%	66.2°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	67.6°F	2.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	<1%	64.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261020-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Chicago runs hot-for-here: 75°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗