KORD / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST7%Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

36%

28%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 19.6¢Risks 19.55u

EPSNO 80.5¢Risks 80.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +80.45u · EPS −80.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T04:30:45+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:32:59+00:00	80.3%	25.5%	51.5%	28.5%	27.3%
2026-10-14T11:20:50+00:00	80.3%	11.1%	63.4%	28.5%	27.3%
2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00	80.3%	11.1%	63.4%	28.5%	27.3%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	80.3%	11.1%	63.4%	28.5%	27.3%
2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00	67.8%	11.1%	63.4%	28.5%	27.3%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	67.8%	11.1%	63.3%	28.5%	27.6%
2026-10-14T15:12:16+00:00	67.8%	12.3%	63.3%	28.5%	27.6%
2026-10-14T15:57:56+00:00	67.8%	12.3%	63.3%	28.5%	27.6%
2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00	67.8%	12.3%	63.3%	28.5%	27.6%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00	67.8%	12.3%	51.6%	28.5%	27.6%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	67.8%	12.3%	51.6%	28.5%	27.6%
2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00	67.8%	12.3%	51.6%	28.5%	27.6%
2026-10-14T19:43:34+00:00	43.6%	12.3%	51.6%	14.2%	48.4%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	43.6%	12.3%	51.6%	14.2%	48.4%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	43.6%	12.3%	51.6%	14.2%	48.4%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	43.6%	12.3%	51.6%	14.2%	48.4%
2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00	43.6%	12.3%	51.6%	14.2%	48.4%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	43.6%	12.3%	42.9%	14.2%	48.4%
2026-10-15T00:14:41+00:00	43.6%	12.3%	42.9%	14.2%	48.4%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00	43.6%	12.3%	42.9%	14.2%	48.4%
2026-10-15T01:46:18+00:00	48.6%	12.3%	42.9%	14.2%	48.4%
2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00	48.6%	12.3%	42.9%	14.2%	48.4%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00	48.6%	12.3%	42.9%	14.2%	48.4%
2026-10-15T04:02:09+00:00	48.6%	12.3%	42.9%	14.2%	48.4%
2026-10-15T16:19:59+00:00	48.5%	3.9%	48.3%	14.8%	35.7%
2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00	48.5%	3.9%	55.1%	14.8%	35.7%
2026-10-15T17:50:43+00:00	48.5%	3.9%	55.1%	14.8%	35.7%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	48.5%	3.9%	55.1%	14.8%	35.7%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	48.5%	3.9%	55.1%	14.8%	35.7%
2026-10-15T20:06:17+00:00	50.7%	3.9%	55.1%	22.9%	39.5%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	50.7%	3.9%	55.1%	22.9%	39.5%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	50.7%	3.9%	55.1%	22.9%	39.5%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00	50.7%	3.9%	55.1%	22.9%	39.5%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00	50.7%	3.9%	45.7%	22.9%	39.5%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00	50.7%	3.9%	45.7%	22.9%	39.5%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00	50.7%	3.9%	45.7%	22.9%	39.5%
2026-10-16T01:22:44+00:00	50.0%	3.9%	45.7%	22.9%	39.5%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	50.0%	3.9%	45.7%	22.9%	39.5%
2026-10-16T02:53:29+00:00	50.0%	3.9%	45.7%	22.9%	39.5%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	50.0%	3.9%	45.7%	22.9%	39.5%
2026-10-16T04:24:06+00:00	50.0%	3.9%	45.7%	22.9%	39.5%
2026-10-16T05:10:27+00:00	50.0%	3.9%	48.3%	22.9%	39.5%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	50.0%	3.9%	48.3%	22.9%	39.5%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	50.0%	3.9%	48.3%	22.9%	39.5%
2026-10-16T07:26:14+00:00	50.0%	3.9%	48.3%	22.9%	39.5%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	43.6%	3.9%	48.3%	22.9%	37.6%
2026-10-16T08:56:36+00:00	43.6%	3.9%	48.3%	22.9%	37.6%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	43.6%	3.9%	48.3%	22.9%	37.6%
2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00	43.6%	3.9%	48.3%	22.9%	37.6%
2026-10-16T11:12:16+00:00	43.6%	2.9%	47.1%	22.9%	37.6%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	43.6%	2.9%	47.1%	22.9%	37.6%
2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00	43.6%	2.9%	47.1%	22.9%	37.6%
2026-10-16T13:28:30+00:00	43.6%	2.9%	47.1%	22.9%	37.6%
2026-10-16T14:19:45+00:00	40.4%	2.9%	47.1%	11.6%	37.6%
2026-10-16T15:05:30+00:00	40.4%	2.7%	47.1%	11.6%	37.6%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	40.4%	2.7%	47.1%	11.6%	37.6%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	40.4%	2.7%	47.1%	11.6%	37.6%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	40.4%	2.7%	45.2%	11.6%	37.6%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	40.4%	2.7%	45.2%	11.6%	37.6%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	40.4%	2.7%	45.2%	11.6%	37.6%
2026-10-16T19:37:00+00:00	42.0%	2.7%	45.2%	11.6%	25.8%
2026-10-16T20:22:28+00:00	42.0%	2.7%	45.2%	11.6%	25.8%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	42.0%	2.7%	45.2%	11.6%	25.8%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	42.0%	2.7%	45.2%	11.6%	25.8%
2026-10-16T22:38:05+00:00	42.0%	2.7%	45.2%	21.8%	25.8%
2026-10-16T23:23:30+00:00	42.0%	2.7%	46.1%	21.8%	25.9%
2026-10-17T00:09:41+00:00	42.0%	2.7%	46.1%	21.8%	25.9%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	42.0%	2.7%	46.1%	21.8%	25.9%
2026-10-17T01:40:07+00:00	50.0%	2.7%	46.1%	21.8%	25.9%
2026-10-17T02:25:19+00:00	50.0%	2.7%	46.1%	21.8%	25.9%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	50.0%	2.7%	46.1%	21.8%	25.9%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	50.0%	2.7%	46.1%	21.8%	25.9%
2026-10-17T04:41:41+00:00	50.0%	2.7%	46.1%	21.8%	25.9%
2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00	50.0%	2.7%	46.1%	21.8%	25.9%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	50.0%	2.7%	46.1%	21.8%	25.9%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	50.0%	2.7%	46.1%	21.8%	25.9%
2026-10-17T07:44:27+00:00	50.0%	2.7%	46.1%	16.9%	2.7%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	50.0%	2.7%	46.1%	16.9%	2.7%
2026-10-17T09:16:36+00:00	50.0%	2.7%	46.1%	16.9%	2.7%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	50.0%	2.7%	46.1%	16.9%	2.7%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	50.0%	2.7%	46.1%	16.9%	2.7%
2026-10-17T11:32:04+00:00	50.0%	5.7%	46.8%	16.9%	2.7%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	50.0%	5.7%	46.8%	16.9%	2.7%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	50.0%	5.7%	46.8%	16.9%	2.7%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00	43.9%	5.7%	46.8%	16.9%	2.7%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00	43.9%	5.7%	46.8%	16.9%	2.7%
2026-10-18T04:13:57+00:00	37.2%	4.8%	32.4%	11.9%	6.0%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	37.2%	4.8%	36.4%	11.9%	6.0%
2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00	37.2%	4.8%	36.4%	11.9%	6.0%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	37.2%	4.8%	36.4%	11.9%	6.0%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00	37.2%	4.8%	36.4%	11.9%	6.0%
2026-10-18T08:01:16+00:00	37.2%	4.8%	36.4%	9.0%	5.3%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00	37.2%	4.8%	36.4%	9.0%	5.3%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	37.2%	4.8%	36.4%	9.0%	5.3%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	37.2%	4.8%	36.4%	9.0%	5.3%
2026-10-18T11:02:45+00:00	37.2%	4.8%	36.4%	9.0%	5.3%
2026-10-18T11:48:13+00:00	37.2%	3.3%	28.6%	9.0%	5.3%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	37.2%	3.3%	28.6%	9.0%	5.3%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	37.2%	3.3%	28.6%	9.0%	5.3%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	31.1%	3.7%	28.6%	8.9%	5.4%
2026-10-18T14:55:46+00:00	31.1%	3.7%	28.6%	8.9%	5.4%
2026-10-18T15:41:30+00:00	31.1%	2.8%	28.6%	8.9%	5.4%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00	31.1%	2.8%	28.6%	8.9%	5.4%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00	31.1%	2.8%	26.7%	8.9%	5.4%
2026-10-18T17:57:24+00:00	31.1%	2.8%	26.7%	8.9%	5.4%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	31.1%	2.8%	26.7%	8.9%	5.4%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	31.1%	2.8%	26.7%	8.9%	5.4%
2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00	33.7%	2.8%	26.7%	8.2%	6.3%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	33.7%	2.8%	26.7%	8.2%	6.3%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	33.7%	2.8%	26.7%	8.2%	6.3%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	33.7%	2.8%	26.7%	8.2%	6.3%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	33.7%	2.8%	27.6%	8.2%	6.3%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00	33.7%	2.8%	27.6%	8.2%	6.3%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00	33.7%	2.8%	27.6%	8.2%	6.3%
2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00	36.3%	2.8%	27.6%	8.2%	6.3%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	36.3%	2.8%	27.6%	8.2%	6.3%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	36.3%	2.8%	27.6%	8.2%	6.3%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	36.3%	2.8%	27.6%	8.2%	6.3%
2026-10-19T04:30:45+00:00	36.3%	2.8%	27.6%	8.2%	6.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	36%	72.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	28%	71.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	23%	71.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	8%	67.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	6%	67.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	6%	70.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	3%	68.3°F	2.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261021-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Chicago runs hot-for-here: 74°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗