KORD / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST7%Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

36%

28%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 19.6¢Risks 19.55u

EPSNO 80.5¢Risks 80.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +80.45u · EPS −80.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	—	—	21.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	56.7%	—	11.7%	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	23.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	12.3%	—	27.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	39.4%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	2.4%	—	21.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	29.3%	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	6.7%	—	22.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	20.8%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	56.1%	3.8%	18.0%	—	13.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	53.4%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	18.9%	33.6%	2.2%	5.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	42.2%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	37.1%	12.8%	17.5%	2.7%	7.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	25.6%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	26.4%	14.6%	16.4%	10.3%	8.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	27.2%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	17.9%	21.2%	9.0%	4.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	0.0%	14.8%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	8.3%	16.2%	6.6%	7.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	24.6%	0.2%	14.7%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	23.4%	0.7%	20.8%	3.9%	6.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	17.8%	2.8%	19.6%	—	5.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	11.9%	1.6%	19.0%	2.0%	3.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	6.4%	17.1%	—	3.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	4.2%	17.7%	1.7%	3.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	8.8%	4.9%	17.7%	—	2.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	9.4%	4.0%	16.3%	0.5%	1.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	10.6%	8.8%	16.9%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	10.9%	10.4%	18.3%	0.9%	2.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	11.2%	17.5%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	36%	72.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	28%	71.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	23%	71.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	8%	67.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	6%	67.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	6%	70.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	3%	68.3°F	2.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261021-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Chicago runs hot-for-here: 74°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗