KORD / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Oct 15 · 10:52 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

88%

62%

34%

33%

Consensus

70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 63.5¢Risks 63.50u

HRESNO 36.5¢Risks 36.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +36.50u · HRES −36.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	37.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	19.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	—	—	—	43.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	27.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	54.0%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	52.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	47.6%	—	—	—	—	44.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	57.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	—	—	—	39.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	36.1%	—	21.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	58.1%	—	20.2%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	70.2%	—	45.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	43.5%	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	80.2%	—	77.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	82.4%	7.0%	41.9%	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	66.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	72.5%	62.4%	26.9%	—	32.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	77.0%	—	71.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	74.0%	31.0%	12.8%	19.9%	—	25.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	75.0%	—	9.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	68.4%	25.8%	68.4%	22.8%	—	35.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	70.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	66.3%	14.9%	34.5%	30.9%	—	24.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	64.4%	3.4%	33.4%	—	—	25.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	50.8%	13.4%	69.2%	8.7%	—	22.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	60.2%	20.8%	66.6%	—	—	23.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	57.8%	16.7%	68.6%	15.6%	—	24.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	15.0%	72.9%	—	—	17.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	45.4%	17.2%	69.5%	9.0%	—	17.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	49.0%	24.6%	72.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	54.9%	33.0%	76.0%	8.2%	—	25.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	47.0%	30.8%	78.1%	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	54.1%	26.8%	77.3%	15.7%	—	14.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	67.4%	38.5%	83.1%	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	75.3%	25.5%	80.2%	21.3%	44.5%	23.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	75.1%	1.9%	—	19.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	94%	78.3°F	5.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	88%	75.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	62%	70.7°F	3.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	70.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	34%	65.4°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	33%	66.7°F	6.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261022-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 70°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗