KORD / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST51%Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

74%

39%

35%

30%

Consensus

51%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 56.0¢Risks 56.00u

ICONNO 44.0¢Risks 44.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +44.00u · ICON −44.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T11:20:51+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:13:57+00:00	76.0%	36.6%	69.5%	19.9%	27.8%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	76.0%	36.6%	78.2%	19.9%	27.8%
2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00	76.0%	36.6%	78.2%	19.9%	27.8%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	76.0%	36.6%	78.2%	19.9%	27.8%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00	76.0%	36.6%	78.2%	19.9%	27.8%
2026-10-18T08:01:16+00:00	75.0%	36.6%	78.2%	37.4%	22.4%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00	75.0%	36.6%	78.2%	37.4%	22.4%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	75.0%	36.6%	78.2%	37.4%	22.4%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	75.0%	36.6%	78.2%	37.4%	22.4%
2026-10-18T11:02:45+00:00	75.0%	36.6%	78.2%	37.4%	22.4%
2026-10-18T11:48:13+00:00	75.0%	30.9%	71.3%	37.4%	22.4%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	75.0%	30.9%	71.3%	37.4%	22.4%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	75.0%	30.9%	71.3%	37.4%	22.4%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	66.8%	30.9%	71.3%	37.4%	22.4%
2026-10-18T14:55:46+00:00	66.8%	30.9%	71.3%	37.4%	22.4%
2026-10-19T04:30:45+00:00	67.6%	29.1%	74.0%	18.4%	24.3%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	67.6%	29.1%	77.4%	18.4%	24.3%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	67.6%	29.1%	77.4%	18.4%	24.3%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	67.6%	29.1%	77.4%	18.4%	24.3%
2026-10-19T07:33:07+00:00	73.6%	29.1%	77.4%	39.4%	29.9%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	73.6%	29.1%	77.4%	39.4%	29.9%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	73.6%	29.1%	77.4%	39.4%	29.9%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	73.6%	29.1%	77.4%	39.4%	29.9%
2026-10-19T10:35:10+00:00	73.6%	29.1%	77.4%	39.4%	29.9%
2026-10-19T11:20:51+00:00	73.6%	35.0%	82.1%	39.4%	29.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	82%	73.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	74%	73.2°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	71.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	70.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	39%	69.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	35%	69.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	30%	68.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261022-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 18 · 04:13 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 71°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗