KORD / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST51%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

74%

39%

35%

30%

Consensus

51%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 56.0¢Risks 56.00u

ICONNO 44.0¢Risks 44.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +44.00u · ICON −44.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	1.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	32.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	38.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	43.9%	—	22.9%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	48.3%	—	—	—	36.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	47.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	30.5%	—	17.3%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	51.9%	—	16.1%	—	27.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	64.4%	—	39.3%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	37.2%	—	13.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	72.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	77.7%	5.0%	35.5%	—	24.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	59.6%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	75.9%	66.4%	55.6%	21.4%	26.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	71.1%	—	65.4%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	67.7%	24.9%	9.3%	15.2%	19.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	68.7%	—	6.7%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	61.3%	20.0%	61.3%	17.4%	28.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	65.2%	—	63.0%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	10.8%	27.4%	24.2%	18.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	56.5%	2.1%	26.3%	—	19.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	42.5%	9.3%	61.5%	5.8%	16.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	51.7%	15.2%	58.5%	—	17.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	49.1%	11.8%	60.4%	10.9%	17.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	10.3%	64.9%	—	12.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	11.9%	60.9%	5.8%	11.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	39.7%	17.7%	63.9%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	45.1%	24.7%	67.8%	5.1%	18.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	22.6%	70.1%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	82%	73.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	74%	73.2°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	71.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	70.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	39%	69.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	35%	69.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	30%	68.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261022-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 18 · 04:13 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 71°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗