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KORD / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
97%
AIFS
87%
ICON
59%
EPS
53%
HRES
37%
Consensus
73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 67.3¢Risks 67.35u
VS
HRESNO 32.6¢Risks 32.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +32.65u · HRES −32.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 84.9% · 2026-10-19T04:30:45+00:00AIFS Single: 84.9% · 2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00AIFS Single: 84.9% · 2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00AIFS Single: 84.9% · 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00AIFS Single: 87.1% · 2026-10-19T07:33:07+00:00AIFS Single: 87.1% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00AIFS Single: 87.1% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00AIFS Single: 87.1% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00AIFS Single: 87.1% · 2026-10-19T10:35:10+00:00AIFS Single: 87.1% · 2026-10-19T11:20:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.8% · 2026-10-19T04:30:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.8% · 2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.8% · 2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.8% · 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.8% · 2026-10-19T07:33:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.8% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.8% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.8% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.8% · 2026-10-19T10:35:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.0% · 2026-10-19T11:20:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.8% · 2026-10-19T04:30:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.0% · 2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.0% · 2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.0% · 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.0% · 2026-10-19T07:33:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.0% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.0% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.0% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.0% · 2026-10-19T10:35:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.3% · 2026-10-19T11:20:51+00:00IFS HRES: 25.6% · 2026-10-19T04:30:45+00:00IFS HRES: 25.6% · 2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00IFS HRES: 25.6% · 2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00IFS HRES: 25.6% · 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00IFS HRES: 37.4% · 2026-10-19T07:33:07+00:00IFS HRES: 37.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00IFS HRES: 37.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00IFS HRES: 37.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00IFS HRES: 37.4% · 2026-10-19T10:35:10+00:00IFS HRES: 37.4% · 2026-10-19T11:20:51+00:00ICON: 50.7% · 2026-10-19T04:30:45+00:00ICON: 50.7% · 2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00ICON: 50.7% · 2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00ICON: 50.7% · 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00ICON: 58.9% · 2026-10-19T07:33:07+00:00ICON: 58.9% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00ICON: 58.9% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00ICON: 58.9% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00ICON: 58.9% · 2026-10-19T10:35:10+00:00ICON: 58.9% · 2026-10-19T11:20:51+00:0010-19 04:3010-19 08:1910-19 11:20
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T11:20:51+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T04:30:45+00:0084.9%54.8%92.8%25.6%50.7%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:0084.9%54.8%94.0%25.6%50.7%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:0084.9%54.8%94.0%25.6%50.7%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:0084.9%54.8%94.0%25.6%50.7%
2026-10-19T07:33:07+00:0087.1%54.8%94.0%37.4%58.9%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:0087.1%54.8%94.0%37.4%58.9%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:0087.1%54.8%94.0%37.4%58.9%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:0087.1%54.8%94.0%37.4%58.9%
2026-10-19T10:35:10+00:0087.1%54.8%94.0%37.4%58.9%
2026-10-19T11:20:51+00:0087.1%53.0%97.3%37.4%58.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 297%74.7°F3.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single87%72.7°F4.6°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON59%68.6°F4.9°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend56%68.0°F3.4°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
NWS forecast54%68.0°F4.5°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
IFS Ensemble53%67.8°F4.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES37%65.9°F5.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261023-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 68°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗