KORD / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

87%

59%

53%

37%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 67.3¢Risks 67.35u

HRESNO 32.6¢Risks 32.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +32.65u · HRES −32.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	68.5%	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	56.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	71.5%	—	—	—	46.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	0.2%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	88.9%	—	1.7%	—	29.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	39.4%	—	21.4%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	90.5%	—	—	—	20.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	94.3%	—	95.3%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	25.4%	—	36.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	82.0%	—	84.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	83.6%	—	40.3%	—	37.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	89.7%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	80.6%	8.0%	72.4%	—	35.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	9.2%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	68.3%	23.5%	56.3%	25.7%	46.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	89.9%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	75.7%	18.9%	83.5%	47.8%	26.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	73.8%	—	83.0%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	64.9%	5.4%	82.6%	15.5%	26.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	70.1%	—	81.1%	—	19.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	69.8%	24.2%	89.2%	24.2%	23.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	3.1%	53.3%	—	15.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	62.3%	29.3%	88.8%	17.3%	18.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	65.8%	35.0%	86.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	44.8%	89.1%	11.3%	18.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	36.8%	90.4%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	97%	74.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	87%	72.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	59%	68.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	53%	67.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	37%	65.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261023-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 68°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗