KORD / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST18%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

43%

24%

Consensus

18%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 24.2¢Risks 24.25u

ICONNO 75.8¢Risks 75.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +75.75u · ICON −75.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	2.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	12.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	21.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	16.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	57.6%	—	0.1%	—	5.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	3.3%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	59.6%	—	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	69.0%	—	72.2%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	60.6%	—	3.9%	—	7.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	44.9%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	43.5%	—	8.3%	—	7.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	54.0%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	37.4%	0.5%	27.7%	—	5.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	0.5%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	2.5%	14.1%	3.0%	9.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	50.7%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	1.5%	37.8%	9.0%	2.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	36.1%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	0.2%	34.4%	0.9%	2.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	31.2%	—	1.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	1.8%	43.6%	1.8%	1.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	13.9%	0.1%	8.8%	—	0.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	12.5%	2.2%	40.1%	0.8%	0.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	3.0%	34.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	4.7%	37.9%	0.3%	0.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	2.8%	39.3%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	75.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	43%	73.6°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
National Blend	29%	72.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	24%	71.2°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	9%	65.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	6%	67.6°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	5%	62.8°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261023-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 17 · 15:24 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 75°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗