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KORD / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
98%
AIFS
83%
ICON
54%
EPS
36%
HRES
24%
Consensus
66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 60.8¢Risks 60.80u
VS
HRESNO 39.2¢Risks 39.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +39.20u · HRES −39.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 79.7% · 2026-10-19T04:30:45+00:00AIFS Single: 79.7% · 2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00AIFS Single: 79.7% · 2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00AIFS Single: 79.7% · 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00AIFS Single: 83.4% · 2026-10-19T07:33:07+00:00AIFS Single: 83.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00AIFS Single: 83.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00AIFS Single: 83.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00AIFS Single: 83.4% · 2026-10-19T10:35:10+00:00AIFS Single: 83.4% · 2026-10-19T11:20:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 29.9% · 2026-10-19T04:30:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 29.9% · 2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 29.9% · 2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 29.9% · 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 29.9% · 2026-10-19T07:33:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 29.9% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 29.9% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 29.9% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 29.9% · 2026-10-19T10:35:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.4% · 2026-10-19T11:20:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.1% · 2026-10-19T04:30:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.7% · 2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.7% · 2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.7% · 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.7% · 2026-10-19T07:33:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.7% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.7% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.7% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.7% · 2026-10-19T10:35:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.7% · 2026-10-19T11:20:51+00:00IFS HRES: 29.8% · 2026-10-19T04:30:45+00:00IFS HRES: 29.8% · 2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00IFS HRES: 29.8% · 2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00IFS HRES: 29.8% · 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00IFS HRES: 23.9% · 2026-10-19T07:33:07+00:00IFS HRES: 23.9% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00IFS HRES: 23.9% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00IFS HRES: 23.9% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00IFS HRES: 23.9% · 2026-10-19T10:35:10+00:00IFS HRES: 23.9% · 2026-10-19T11:20:51+00:00ICON: 64.7% · 2026-10-19T04:30:45+00:00ICON: 64.7% · 2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00ICON: 64.7% · 2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00ICON: 64.7% · 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00ICON: 53.9% · 2026-10-19T07:33:07+00:00ICON: 53.9% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00ICON: 53.9% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00ICON: 53.9% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00ICON: 53.9% · 2026-10-19T10:35:10+00:00ICON: 53.9% · 2026-10-19T11:20:51+00:0010-19 04:3010-19 08:1910-19 11:20
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T11:20:51+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T04:30:45+00:0079.7%29.9%91.1%29.8%64.7%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:0079.7%29.9%92.7%29.8%64.7%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:0079.7%29.9%92.7%29.8%64.7%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:0079.7%29.9%92.7%29.8%64.7%
2026-10-19T07:33:07+00:0083.4%29.9%92.7%23.9%53.9%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:0083.4%29.9%92.7%23.9%53.9%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:0083.4%29.9%92.7%23.9%53.9%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:0083.4%29.9%92.7%23.9%53.9%
2026-10-19T10:35:10+00:0083.4%29.9%92.7%23.9%53.9%
2026-10-19T11:20:51+00:0083.4%36.4%97.7%23.9%53.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 298%76.7°F4.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single83%73.3°F5.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend56%69.0°F3.3°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
ICON54%69.1°F6.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
NWS forecast54%69.0°F5.2°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
IFS Ensemble36%66.8°F4.9°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES24%64.4°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261024-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 69°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗