KORD / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

83%

54%

36%

24%

Consensus

66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 60.8¢Risks 60.80u

HRESNO 39.2¢Risks 39.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +39.20u · HRES −39.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	2.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	82.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	74.6%	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	82.2%	—	24.2%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	79.1%	—	—	—	22.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	81.5%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	35.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	94.0%	—	69.4%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	71.8%	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	65.1%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	77.0%	—	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	63.2%	—	16.0%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	71.1%	—	46.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	45.4%	—	76.8%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	54.7%	1.4%	62.6%	—	24.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	67.3%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	43.7%	3.3%	67.0%	9.6%	20.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	70.5%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	22.6%	79.0%	18.9%	19.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	55.2%	—	74.4%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	56.1%	42.4%	79.5%	46.9%	19.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	75.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	33.7%	69.8%	21.8%	16.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	1.2%	81.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	76.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	83%	73.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	69.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	54%	69.1°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	69.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	36%	66.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	24%	64.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261024-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 69°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗