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KORD / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST16%Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
33%
HRES
25%
WN2
25%
EPS
22%
AIFS
7%
Consensus
16%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 20.2¢Risks 20.20u
VS
AIFSNO 79.8¢Risks 79.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +79.80u · AIFS −79.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 7.0% · 2026-10-19T07:33:07+00:00AIFS Single: 7.0% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00AIFS Single: 7.0% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00AIFS Single: 7.0% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00AIFS Single: 7.0% · 2026-10-19T10:35:10+00:00AIFS Single: 7.0% · 2026-10-19T11:20:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.5% · 2026-10-19T07:33:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.5% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.5% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.5% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.5% · 2026-10-19T10:35:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.0% · 2026-10-19T11:20:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.6% · 2026-10-19T07:33:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.6% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.6% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.6% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.6% · 2026-10-19T10:35:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.7% · 2026-10-19T11:20:52+00:00IFS HRES: 24.8% · 2026-10-19T07:33:07+00:00IFS HRES: 24.8% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00IFS HRES: 24.8% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00IFS HRES: 24.8% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00IFS HRES: 24.8% · 2026-10-19T10:35:10+00:00IFS HRES: 24.8% · 2026-10-19T11:20:52+00:00ICON: 33.4% · 2026-10-19T07:33:07+00:00ICON: 33.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00ICON: 33.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00ICON: 33.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00ICON: 33.4% · 2026-10-19T10:35:10+00:00ICON: 33.4% · 2026-10-19T11:20:52+00:0010-19 07:3310-19 09:4910-19 11:20
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T11:20:52+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T07:33:07+00:007.0%24.5%25.6%24.8%33.4%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:007.0%24.5%25.6%24.8%33.4%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:007.0%24.5%25.6%24.8%33.4%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:007.0%24.5%25.6%24.8%33.4%
2026-10-19T10:35:10+00:007.0%24.5%25.6%24.8%33.4%
2026-10-19T11:20:52+00:007.0%22.0%24.7%24.8%33.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON33%68.2°F10.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES25%68.1°F6.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 225%69.0°F5.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend24%67.0°F7.7°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble22%69.3°F4.2°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single7%64.0°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261026-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Chicago runs hot-for-here: 73°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗