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KORD / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST16%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
33%
HRES
25%
WN2
25%
EPS
22%
AIFS
7%
Consensus
16%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 20.2¢Risks 20.20u
VS
AIFSNO 79.8¢Risks 79.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +79.80u · AIFS −79.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.9% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.9% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.2% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.5% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 53.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.2% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.4% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.9% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.3% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.1% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 61.2% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 57.4% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.3% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.6% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.1% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 41.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.9% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.5% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 26.5% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 14.2% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.5% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.7% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.3% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.9% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.7% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.5% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.3% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.9% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.5% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.6% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.3% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.3% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0010-11 06:0010-15 06:0010-19 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSIFS archive
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSIFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:000.2%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:000.0%——0.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:000.3%———
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:005.9%——3.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:000.9%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:003.9%——3.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:000.9%———
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:008.9%——8.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0014.9%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:000.9%——4.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0011.2%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:005.3%——3.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:000.8%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:000.6%——7.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:001.2%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0020.1%——6.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0026.5%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0053.2%——5.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0026.2%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0025.4%——9.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0026.9%—7.1%—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0013.3%——8.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0018.1%———
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0027.3%——13.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0061.2%———
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0029.2%—41.0%8.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0057.4%———
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0015.3%—0.9%18.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:000.9%—0.3%—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:001.6%—4.2%12.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:000.5%—6.5%—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:001.7%6.6%26.5%9.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00——14.2%—
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON33%68.2°F10.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES25%68.1°F6.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 225%69.0°F5.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend24%67.0°F7.7°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble22%69.3°F4.2°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single7%64.0°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261026-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Chicago runs hot-for-here: 73°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗