WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KPDX / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 12 · 14:41 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
92%
ICON
43%
AIFS
20%
HRES
15%
WN2
6%
Consensus
32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 48.6¢Risks 48.55u
VS
WN2NO 51.4¢Risks 51.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +51.45u · WN2 −51.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 17.3% · 2026-10-12T04:02:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.3% · 2026-10-12T04:47:17+00:00AIFS Single: 17.3% · 2026-10-12T05:32:23+00:00AIFS Single: 17.3% · 2026-10-12T06:17:30+00:00AIFS Single: 17.3% · 2026-10-12T07:02:36+00:00AIFS Single: 16.4% · 2026-10-12T07:49:02+00:00AIFS Single: 16.4% · 2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00AIFS Single: 16.4% · 2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00AIFS Single: 16.4% · 2026-10-12T10:05:01+00:00AIFS Single: 16.4% · 2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00AIFS Single: 16.4% · 2026-10-12T11:35:41+00:00AIFS Single: 16.4% · 2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00AIFS Single: 16.4% · 2026-10-12T13:05:59+00:00AIFS Single: 19.6% · 2026-10-12T13:51:11+00:00AIFS Single: 19.6% · 2026-10-12T14:41:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.1% · 2026-10-12T04:02:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.1% · 2026-10-12T04:47:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.1% · 2026-10-12T05:32:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.1% · 2026-10-12T06:17:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.1% · 2026-10-12T07:02:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.1% · 2026-10-12T07:49:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.1% · 2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.1% · 2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.1% · 2026-10-12T10:05:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.1% · 2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.1% · 2026-10-12T11:35:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.8% · 2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.8% · 2026-10-12T13:05:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.8% · 2026-10-12T13:51:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.5% · 2026-10-12T14:41:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.8% · 2026-10-12T04:02:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.8% · 2026-10-12T04:47:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.0% · 2026-10-12T05:32:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.0% · 2026-10-12T06:17:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.0% · 2026-10-12T07:02:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.0% · 2026-10-12T07:49:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.0% · 2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.0% · 2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.0% · 2026-10-12T10:05:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.0% · 2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.5% · 2026-10-12T11:35:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.5% · 2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.5% · 2026-10-12T13:05:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.5% · 2026-10-12T13:51:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.6% · 2026-10-12T14:41:20+00:00IFS HRES: 36.3% · 2026-10-12T04:02:00+00:00IFS HRES: 36.3% · 2026-10-12T04:47:17+00:00IFS HRES: 36.3% · 2026-10-12T05:32:23+00:00IFS HRES: 36.3% · 2026-10-12T06:17:30+00:00IFS HRES: 36.3% · 2026-10-12T07:02:36+00:00IFS HRES: 14.9% · 2026-10-12T07:49:02+00:00IFS HRES: 14.9% · 2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00IFS HRES: 14.9% · 2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00IFS HRES: 14.9% · 2026-10-12T10:05:01+00:00IFS HRES: 14.9% · 2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00IFS HRES: 14.9% · 2026-10-12T11:35:41+00:00IFS HRES: 14.9% · 2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00IFS HRES: 14.9% · 2026-10-12T13:05:59+00:00IFS HRES: 14.9% · 2026-10-12T13:51:11+00:00IFS HRES: 14.9% · 2026-10-12T14:41:20+00:00ICON: 52.8% · 2026-10-12T04:02:00+00:00ICON: 52.8% · 2026-10-12T04:47:17+00:00ICON: 52.8% · 2026-10-12T05:32:23+00:00ICON: 52.8% · 2026-10-12T06:17:30+00:00ICON: 52.8% · 2026-10-12T07:02:36+00:00ICON: 42.6% · 2026-10-12T07:49:02+00:00ICON: 42.6% · 2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00ICON: 42.6% · 2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00ICON: 42.6% · 2026-10-12T10:05:01+00:00ICON: 42.6% · 2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00ICON: 42.6% · 2026-10-12T11:35:41+00:00ICON: 42.6% · 2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00ICON: 42.6% · 2026-10-12T13:05:59+00:00ICON: 42.6% · 2026-10-12T13:51:11+00:00ICON: 42.6% · 2026-10-12T14:41:20+00:0010-12 04:0210-12 09:1910-12 14:41
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-12T14:41:20+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-12T04:02:00+00:0017.3%89.1%6.8%36.3%52.8%
2026-10-12T04:47:17+00:0017.3%89.1%6.8%36.3%52.8%
2026-10-12T05:32:23+00:0017.3%89.1%9.0%36.3%52.8%
2026-10-12T06:17:30+00:0017.3%89.1%9.0%36.3%52.8%
2026-10-12T07:02:36+00:0017.3%89.1%9.0%36.3%52.8%
2026-10-12T07:49:02+00:0016.4%89.1%9.0%14.9%42.6%
2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:0016.4%89.1%9.0%14.9%42.6%
2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:0016.4%89.1%9.0%14.9%42.6%
2026-10-12T10:05:01+00:0016.4%89.1%9.0%14.9%42.6%
2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:0016.4%89.1%9.0%14.9%42.6%
2026-10-12T11:35:41+00:0016.4%89.1%5.5%14.9%42.6%
2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:0016.4%91.8%5.5%14.9%42.6%
2026-10-12T13:05:59+00:0016.4%91.8%5.5%14.9%42.6%
2026-10-12T13:51:11+00:0019.6%91.8%5.5%14.9%42.6%
2026-10-12T14:41:20+00:0019.6%91.5%5.6%14.9%42.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble92%77.1°F4.8°F2026-10-12 00:000.8372
NWS forecast54%71.0°F5.1°F2026-10-12 02:000.2905
ICON43%69.4°F5.9°F2026-10-12 00:000.1815
National Blend32%69.0°F3.3°F2026-10-12 06:000.1056
AIFS Single20%66.3°F4.9°F2026-10-12 06:000.0384
IFS HRES15%64.5°F5.8°F2026-10-12 00:000.0222
WeatherNext 26%64.0°F4.1°F2026-10-12 00:000.0031

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261017-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 12 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 71°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗