KPDX / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 12 · 14:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

43%

20%

15%

Consensus

32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 48.6¢Risks 48.55u

WN2NO 51.4¢Risks 51.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +51.45u · WN2 −51.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	24.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	63.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	36.0%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	29.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	0.7%	—	—	36.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	37.1%	—	53.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	60.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	—	36.4%	—	—	26.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	62.0%	—	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	31.8%	—	53.2%	—	—	16.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	2.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	61.3%	—	—	16.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	52.8%	53.5%	38.9%	—	11.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	62.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	65.0%	50.0%	—	15.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	62.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	28.3%	40.2%	28.9%	—	14.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	4.1%	23.0%	2.7%	10.0%	—	13.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	5.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	7.4%	3.8%	20.1%	—	11.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	3.3%	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	6.5%	30.7%	19.0%	11.3%	—	8.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	20.9%	12.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	16.0%	11.9%	10.2%	—	6.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	4.6%	11.3%	3.2%	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	12.6%	15.3%	14.2%	—	6.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	11.9%	8.4%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	17.0%	0.7%	4.2%	—	6.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	19.0%	4.0%	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	16.9%	16.9%	4.2%	0.0%	5.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	12.9%	19.0%	0.6%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	17.5%	4.8%	0.8%	—	2.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	17.5%	5.5%	0.9%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	11.2%	3.7%	0.5%	0.1%	3.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	9.2%	6.0%	1.2%	—	3.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	7.9%	8.9%	3.5%	0.3%	1.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	7.1%	11.1%	0.2%	—	0.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	5.5%	13.8%	0.5%	0.5%	1.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	9.2%	16.2%	0.2%	—	1.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	8.3%	2.6%	0.0%	0.4%	0.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	3.4%	2.1%	0.4%	—	0.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	92%	77.1°F	4.8°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.8372
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-12 02:00	0.2905
ICON	43%	69.4°F	5.9°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.1815
National Blend	32%	69.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.1056
AIFS Single	20%	66.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.0384
IFS HRES	15%	64.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0222
WeatherNext 2	6%	64.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0031

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261017-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 12 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 71°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗