KPDX / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 64°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

86%

82%

79%

70%

Consensus

77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 80.2¢Risks 40.12u

ICONNO 19.8¢Risks 9.88u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +9.88u · ICON −9.88u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T03:00:06+00:00	66.4%	84.1%	48.1%	24.4%	80.2%
2026-10-14T03:45:41+00:00	66.4%	84.1%	48.1%	24.4%	80.2%
2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00	66.4%	84.1%	48.1%	24.4%	80.2%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00	66.4%	84.1%	48.1%	24.4%	80.2%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00	66.4%	84.1%	48.1%	24.4%	80.2%
2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00	66.4%	84.1%	48.1%	24.4%	80.2%
2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00	74.3%	84.1%	48.1%	24.4%	47.5%
2026-10-14T08:16:40+00:00	74.3%	84.1%	48.1%	24.4%	47.5%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00	74.3%	84.1%	48.1%	24.4%	47.5%
2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00	74.3%	84.1%	48.1%	24.4%	47.5%
2026-10-14T10:34:41+00:00	74.3%	84.1%	48.1%	46.0%	47.5%
2026-10-14T11:21:02+00:00	74.3%	81.7%	64.7%	46.0%	47.5%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	74.3%	81.7%	64.7%	46.0%	47.5%
2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00	74.3%	81.7%	64.7%	46.0%	47.5%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00	84.1%	81.7%	64.7%	46.0%	47.5%
2026-10-14T14:26:53+00:00	84.1%	81.7%	64.7%	46.0%	48.3%
2026-10-14T15:12:44+00:00	84.1%	82.2%	64.7%	46.0%	48.3%
2026-10-14T15:57:59+00:00	84.1%	82.2%	64.7%	46.0%	48.3%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	84.1%	82.2%	64.7%	46.0%	48.3%
2026-10-14T17:28:15+00:00	84.1%	82.2%	64.7%	46.0%	48.3%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	84.1%	82.2%	64.7%	46.0%	48.3%
2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:00	84.1%	82.2%	64.7%	46.0%	48.3%
2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:00	90.0%	82.2%	64.7%	86.0%	70.5%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	90.0%	82.2%	64.7%	86.0%	70.5%
2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00	90.0%	82.2%	64.7%	86.0%	70.5%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	90.0%	82.2%	64.7%	86.0%	70.5%
2026-10-14T22:44:12+00:00	90.0%	82.2%	64.7%	86.0%	70.5%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	90.0%	81.9%	79.0%	86.0%	70.5%
2026-10-15T00:15:27+00:00	90.0%	81.9%	79.0%	86.0%	70.5%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	90.0%	81.9%	79.0%	86.0%	70.5%
2026-10-15T01:46:22+00:00	90.0%	81.9%	79.0%	86.0%	70.5%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00	90.0%	81.9%	79.0%	86.0%	70.5%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	90.0%	81.9%	79.0%	86.0%	70.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	90%	69.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.0100
IFS HRES	86%	68.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0196
IFS Ensemble	82%	67.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0328
WeatherNext 2	79%	66.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0441
ICON	70%	66.1°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0870
NWS forecast	55%	64.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.2070
National Blend	44%	63.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.3080

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261018-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 14 · 03:00 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 64°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗