KPDX / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 64°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

86%

82%

79%

70%

Consensus

77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 80.2¢Risks 40.12u

ICONNO 19.8¢Risks 9.88u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +9.88u · ICON −9.88u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	95.2%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	94.1%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	60.6%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	62.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	68.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	55.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	63.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	83.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	74.6%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	90.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	64.8%	—	18.1%	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	70.9%	—	—	45.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	51.9%	—	57.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	83.6%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	35.7%	—	91.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	33.6%	—	86.1%	—	—	43.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	75.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	59.1%	67.7%	7.7%	—	42.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	68.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	22.6%	37.8%	35.0%	44.9%	—	48.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	56.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	26.4%	61.3%	54.6%	47.7%	—	51.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	53.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	64.1%	56.4%	33.0%	—	48.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	43.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	35.3%	69.2%	65.5%	49.2%	—	31.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	1.1%	79.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	46.5%	33.8%	85.4%	53.5%	—	51.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	46.4%	63.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	72.6%	58.2%	53.7%	37.3%	—	77.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	73.2%	56.6%	47.2%	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	67.8%	67.8%	59.6%	54.9%	—	63.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	69.2%	35.3%	64.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	72.4%	51.0%	56.1%	69.7%	—	51.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	68.4%	30.7%	46.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	71.8%	41.3%	28.2%	75.3%	—	61.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	71.4%	26.7%	21.4%	0.3%	—	55.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	70.0%	16.8%	38.5%	66.9%	—	57.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	68.5%	21.6%	51.2%	53.6%	—	47.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	74.4%	57.4%	53.7%	58.7%	59.9%	64.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	77.2%	65.1%	62.7%	67.5%	—	76.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	73.9%	65.7%	54.0%	64.4%	61.9%	73.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	72.4%	66.2%	61.0%	66.2%	—	72.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	75.5%	64.2%	64.2%	65.5%	72.0%	80.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	74.0%	67.5%	61.9%	74.0%	—	72.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	63.9%	76.2%	80.8%	66.8%	78.6%	71.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	77.2%	45.1%	80.8%	51.6%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	90%	69.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.0100
IFS HRES	86%	68.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0196
IFS Ensemble	82%	67.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0328
WeatherNext 2	79%	66.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0441
ICON	70%	66.1°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0870
NWS forecast	55%	64.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.2070
National Blend	44%	63.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.3080

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261018-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 14 · 03:00 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 64°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗