KPDX / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 67°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

61%

61%

49%

25%

20%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 40.8¢Risks 40.80u

WN2NO 59.2¢Risks 59.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +59.20u · WN2 −59.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T03:15:39+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T07:32:40+00:00	38.0%	60.0%	24.8%	41.3%	—
2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00	38.0%	60.0%	24.8%	41.3%	—
2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00	38.0%	60.0%	24.8%	41.3%	—
2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00	38.0%	60.0%	24.8%	41.3%	—
2026-10-11T10:34:20+00:00	38.0%	60.0%	24.8%	41.3%	—
2026-10-11T11:20:15+00:00	38.0%	64.5%	31.3%	41.3%	—
2026-10-11T12:05:24+00:00	38.0%	64.5%	31.3%	41.3%	—
2026-10-11T12:50:30+00:00	38.0%	64.5%	31.3%	41.3%	—
2026-10-11T13:35:56+00:00	32.0%	64.5%	31.3%	41.3%	—
2026-10-11T14:26:16+00:00	32.1%	64.5%	31.4%	41.3%	—
2026-10-11T15:12:12+00:00	32.1%	60.8%	31.4%	41.3%	—
2026-10-11T15:57:21+00:00	32.1%	60.8%	31.4%	41.3%	—
2026-10-11T16:42:28+00:00	32.1%	60.8%	31.4%	41.3%	—
2026-10-11T17:28:04+00:00	32.1%	60.8%	26.5%	41.3%	—
2026-10-11T18:13:14+00:00	32.1%	60.8%	26.5%	41.3%	—
2026-10-11T18:58:21+00:00	32.1%	60.8%	26.5%	41.3%	—
2026-10-11T19:43:35+00:00	14.2%	60.8%	26.5%	49.4%	61.2%
2026-10-11T20:28:42+00:00	14.2%	60.8%	26.5%	49.4%	61.2%
2026-10-11T21:13:55+00:00	14.2%	60.8%	26.5%	49.4%	61.2%
2026-10-11T21:59:03+00:00	14.2%	60.8%	26.5%	49.4%	61.2%
2026-10-11T22:44:16+00:00	14.2%	60.8%	26.5%	49.4%	61.2%
2026-10-11T23:29:37+00:00	14.2%	60.8%	20.4%	49.4%	61.2%
2026-10-12T00:14:46+00:00	14.2%	60.8%	20.4%	49.4%	61.2%
2026-10-12T01:00:16+00:00	14.2%	60.8%	20.4%	49.4%	61.2%
2026-10-12T01:45:25+00:00	24.8%	60.8%	20.4%	49.4%	61.2%
2026-10-12T02:30:31+00:00	24.8%	60.8%	20.4%	49.4%	61.2%
2026-10-12T03:15:39+00:00	24.8%	60.8%	20.4%	49.4%	61.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	61%	69.3°F	9.9°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.1505
IFS Ensemble	61%	67.9°F	5.1°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.1537
National Blend	54%	67.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.2153
IFS HRES	49%	66.4°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.2560
AIFS Single	25%	62.7°F	5.6°F	2026-10-11 18:00	0.5655
WeatherNext 2	20%	62.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.6336

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261018-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 67°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗