KPDX / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 67°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

61%

61%

49%

25%

20%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 40.8¢Risks 40.80u

WN2NO 59.2¢Risks 59.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +59.20u · WN2 −59.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	52.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	—	—	—	46.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	69.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	47.0%	—	8.6%	—	—	28.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	21.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	53.1%	—	—	27.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	38.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	68.8%	—	—	17.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	81.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	71.8%	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	56.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	38.2%	47.2%	2.5%	—	23.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	47.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	19.4%	17.5%	24.9%	—	27.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	34.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	11.4%	38.7%	32.3%	26.4%	—	29.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	30.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	40.5%	33.0%	14.9%	—	26.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	21.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	15.7%	45.0%	40.9%	25.8%	—	13.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	17.3%	0.2%	57.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	14.1%	65.4%	28.4%	—	26.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	35.1%	22.2%	36.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	31.4%	27.4%	15.4%	—	51.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	46.2%	29.2%	21.7%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	39.4%	39.4%	31.3%	27.1%	—	34.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	40.1%	13.0%	35.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	42.8%	22.7%	26.8%	39.8%	—	22.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	9.6%	19.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	40.3%	14.9%	8.1%	44.5%	—	30.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	38.9%	7.1%	5.1%	0.0%	—	24.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	36.3%	3.3%	12.1%	33.1%	—	24.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	33.6%	4.5%	19.1%	20.8%	—	16.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	38.9%	22.7%	19.9%	23.6%	24.6%	28.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	28.0%	25.9%	30.2%	—	39.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	27.3%	18.2%	26.2%	24.0%	35.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	26.5%	22.1%	26.5%	—	32.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	23.4%	23.4%	24.5%	30.5%	41.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	24.8%	20.2%	31.1%	—	29.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	20.3%	31.7%	37.6%	22.6%	34.6%	26.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	30.9%	8.6%	35.5%	11.5%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	61%	69.3°F	9.9°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.1505
IFS Ensemble	61%	67.9°F	5.1°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.1537
National Blend	54%	67.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.2153
IFS HRES	49%	66.4°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.2560
AIFS Single	25%	62.7°F	5.6°F	2026-10-11 18:00	0.5655
WeatherNext 2	20%	62.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.6336

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261018-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 67°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗