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KPDX / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Oct 15 · 14:48 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
88%
HRES
86%
WN2
75%
EPS
70%
ICON
64%
Consensus
78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 76.0¢Risks 75.95u
VS
ICONNO 24.0¢Risks 24.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +24.05u · ICON −24.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 87.9% · 2026-10-15T04:02:38+00:00AIFS Single: 87.9% · 2026-10-15T04:48:11+00:00AIFS Single: 87.9% · 2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00AIFS Single: 87.9% · 2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00AIFS Single: 87.9% · 2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00AIFS Single: 70.0% · 2026-10-15T07:50:30+00:00AIFS Single: 70.0% · 2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00AIFS Single: 70.0% · 2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00AIFS Single: 70.0% · 2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00AIFS Single: 70.0% · 2026-10-15T10:53:46+00:00AIFS Single: 70.0% · 2026-10-15T11:39:40+00:00AIFS Single: 70.0% · 2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00AIFS Single: 70.0% · 2026-10-15T13:10:38+00:00AIFS Single: 88.2% · 2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00AIFS Single: 88.2% · 2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.7% · 2026-10-15T04:02:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.7% · 2026-10-15T04:48:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.7% · 2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.7% · 2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.7% · 2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.7% · 2026-10-15T07:50:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.7% · 2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.7% · 2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.7% · 2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.7% · 2026-10-15T10:53:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.7% · 2026-10-15T11:39:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.8% · 2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.8% · 2026-10-15T13:10:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.8% · 2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.8% · 2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.3% · 2026-10-15T04:02:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.3% · 2026-10-15T04:48:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.4% · 2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.4% · 2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.4% · 2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.4% · 2026-10-15T07:50:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.4% · 2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.4% · 2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.4% · 2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.2% · 2026-10-15T10:53:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.2% · 2026-10-15T11:39:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.2% · 2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.2% · 2026-10-15T13:10:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.2% · 2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.2% · 2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00IFS HRES: 67.6% · 2026-10-15T04:02:38+00:00IFS HRES: 67.6% · 2026-10-15T04:48:11+00:00IFS HRES: 67.6% · 2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00IFS HRES: 67.6% · 2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00IFS HRES: 67.6% · 2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00IFS HRES: 85.9% · 2026-10-15T07:50:30+00:00IFS HRES: 85.9% · 2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00IFS HRES: 85.9% · 2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00IFS HRES: 85.9% · 2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00IFS HRES: 85.9% · 2026-10-15T10:53:46+00:00IFS HRES: 85.9% · 2026-10-15T11:39:40+00:00IFS HRES: 85.9% · 2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00IFS HRES: 85.9% · 2026-10-15T13:10:38+00:00IFS HRES: 85.8% · 2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00IFS HRES: 85.8% · 2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00ICON: 79.0% · 2026-10-15T04:02:38+00:00ICON: 79.0% · 2026-10-15T04:48:11+00:00ICON: 79.0% · 2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00ICON: 79.0% · 2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00ICON: 79.0% · 2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00ICON: 63.2% · 2026-10-15T07:50:30+00:00ICON: 63.2% · 2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00ICON: 63.2% · 2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00ICON: 63.2% · 2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00ICON: 63.2% · 2026-10-15T10:53:46+00:00ICON: 63.2% · 2026-10-15T11:39:40+00:00ICON: 63.2% · 2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00ICON: 63.2% · 2026-10-15T13:10:38+00:00ICON: 63.7% · 2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00ICON: 63.7% · 2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:0010-15 04:0210-15 09:2110-15 14:48
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-15T04:02:38+00:0087.9%60.7%75.3%67.6%79.0%
2026-10-15T04:48:11+00:0087.9%60.7%75.3%67.6%79.0%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:0087.9%60.7%70.4%67.6%79.0%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:0087.9%60.7%70.4%67.6%79.0%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:0087.9%60.7%70.4%67.6%79.0%
2026-10-15T07:50:30+00:0070.0%60.7%70.4%85.9%63.2%
2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:0070.0%60.7%70.4%85.9%63.2%
2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:0070.0%60.7%70.4%85.9%63.2%
2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:0070.0%60.7%70.4%85.9%63.2%
2026-10-15T10:53:46+00:0070.0%60.7%75.2%85.9%63.2%
2026-10-15T11:39:40+00:0070.0%60.7%75.2%85.9%63.2%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:0070.0%69.8%75.2%85.9%63.2%
2026-10-15T13:10:38+00:0070.0%69.8%75.2%85.9%63.2%
2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:0088.2%69.8%75.2%85.8%63.7%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:0088.2%69.8%75.2%85.8%63.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single88%67.4°F5.0°F2026-10-15 06:00Pending
IFS HRES86%67.7°F5.8°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 275%64.3°F4.1°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
National Blend74%65.0°F5.5°F2026-10-15 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble70%65.7°F8.1°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
ICON64%63.6°F6.0°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
NWS forecast54%62.0°F5.2°F2026-10-15 03:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261020-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 62°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗